EFFECTS OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY ON CHILD HEALTH

拟议项目的主要目标是评估 父母的社会经济特征以及如何制定各种方案 干预措施通过以下方式改变儿童的平均健康和人力资本 既影响成年妇女的生育率，也影响妇女的存活率 孩子们。基于四个国家的家庭数据的估计-- 孟加拉国、象牙海岸、马来西亚和美国--参展 非常不同的出生率和儿童死亡率将提供 关于特定干预措施如何影响人数的信息以及 出生儿童的构成、出生儿童的数量和构成 出生队列的幸存者和儿童的平均健康和人力资本 幸存者。社会经济关系在多大程度上 家庭和儿童死亡率的特征反映了 将评估行为的生育能力以及儿童的选择性 生存对中国人口平均健康水平的影响 幸存者。包含受孕率选择性的模型，胎儿 存活率和儿童存活率将被估计为 首次全面评估方案对儿童健康的影响和 通过生育率和死亡率追溯其影响的人力资本 变化。这些估计值将与之前从 孤立地看待一个或另一个结果而不是 考虑由生育率和/或死亡率引起的样本选择问题。 将开发和应用经济计量程序，以提供估计 考虑到生育率和死亡率的选择性影响 关于儿童健康的各种关于异质性的假设 人口的数量。生育率和死亡率模型的应用 有选择的流程将提供更好的计划估计 关于儿童健康的干预措施和更好地了解 父母的社会经济地位和卫生基础设施的变化 对人群中存活儿童平均健康状况的影响 以不同的生育率和死亡率为特点。

The principal objective of the proposed project is to assess how changes in the socioeconomic characteristics of parents and how a variety of program interventions alter the average health and human capital of children by influencing both the fertility of adult women and the survival rates of children. Estimates based on household data from four countries-- Bangladesh, the Ivory Coast, Malaysia, and the United States--exhibiting very different levels of birth and child death rates will provide information on how particular interventions affect the number and composition of children who are born, the number and composition of the survivors of the birth cohort and the average health and human capital of the survivors. The degree to which the relationships between socioeconomic characteristic of household and child mortality reflect the selectivity of fertility in behavior will be assessed as well as the selectivity of child survival in influencing the average healthiness of the population of survivors. Models incorporating selectivity in conception rates, fetal survival, and child survival will be estimated that will provide for the first time comprehensive estimates of program effects on child health and human capital that trace out their effects through fertility and mortality change. The estimates will be compared to those obtained from prior studies which look at one or another outcome in isolation and do not consider issues of sample selection induced by fertility and/or mortality. Econometric procedures will be developed and applied that provide estimates that take into account the selective influences of fertility and mortality on child health under a wide variety of assumptions about the heterogeneity of populations. Applications of models treating fertility and mortality as selective processes will provide improved estimates of program interventions on child health and a better understanding of how changes in the socioeconomic status of parents and changes in health infrastructure influence the average health status of surviving children in populations characterized by different levels of fertility and mortality.