ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision making using Integrated Assessment

城市地区是易受气候变化影响的集中地。气候变化对城市地区的影响包括过热、缺水和洪水。虽然不可能将个别极端事件归因于气候变化，但最近发生的事件，包括2003年袭击巴黎和其他欧洲城市的热浪，以及新奥尔良的卡特里娜飓风，都表明了与天气有关的大规模城市功能破坏的可能性，可能需要数月或数年才能恢复。认识到气候变化对城市地区的重要性，从适应和减缓的角度来看，廷德尔气候变化研究中心于2005年启动了一项新的城市系统工程研究计划。在廷德尔中心以前在跨学科综合评估方面取得成功的基础上，廷德尔中心城市方案汇集了来自七所大学（其中四所参加了ARCADIA项目）和一个知名利益攸关方团体的研究专长，开发了一个城市综合评估基金（uaf），模拟城市地区的长期变化，可作为测试适应和缓解战略有效性的平台。ARCADIA项目将启动廷德尔中心uaf发展的一个雄心勃勃的新阶段，以便更好地了解城市地区的脆弱性和复原力。ARCADIA项目是高度跨学科的，涉及来自企业、地方和中央政府的有影响力的利益攸关方团体的投入，他们对规划、基础设施、建筑环境以及适应和减缓气候变化感兴趣。该小组将与研究小组合作，确保项目以用户需求为导向。事实上，第一个研究任务将涉及与利益相关者密切合作，以了解廷德尔中心开发的先进建模工具如何最好地为决策提供信息。任务2将确定气候影响破坏城市功能的各种直接和间接模式，并将继续研究潜在的适应机制和适应障碍。在任务3中，廷德尔中心将与东英吉利大学的气候研究部门和气象局哈德利中心合作，为城市地区开发与UKCIP08一致的新的概率情景。任务4将模拟气候影响与城市经济之间的关系，以确定经济如何受到气候变化的破坏。通过分析经济随时间的变化和经济部门之间的相互作用，我们将更好地了解如何使城市经济更具弹性。任务5将把任务4中开发的经济模型与城市地区建筑和基础设施空间规划的新模型结合起来。除了识别脆弱的集中点外，这将使模拟在不同气候和其他驱动因素（如就业和运输系统的变化）的情况下对建筑环境的潜在重新设计成为可能。最后的研究任务将与利益相关者合作，利用对城市系统脆弱性的新认识来分析城市地区的适应如何在一系列时间尺度上增强复原力。会议的目标是为21世纪的城市提出切实可行的“适应路径”建议，以战略性地应对洪水、缺水和极端高温的挑战。

Urban areas are concentrations of vulnerability to climate change. Examples of impacts of climate change in urban areas include excessive heat, water scarcity and flooding. Whilst it is impossible to attribute individual extreme events to climate change, recent events including the 2003 heat wave that struck Paris and other European cities, and hurricane Katrina in New Orleans have illustrated the potential for large scale weather-related disruption of urban function, from which it may take months or years to recover. In recognition of the significance of climate change in urban areas, from the points of view of both adaptation and mitigation, in 2005 the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research launched a new research programme on Engineering Urban Systems . Building on the previous success of the Tyndall Centre in interdisciplinary integrated assessment, the Tyndall Centre Cities Programme brought together research expertise from seven universities (four of which are represented in the ARCADIA project) and a high profile stakeholder group to develop an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) that simulates long term changes in urban areas and can be used as a platform for testing the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies. The ARCADIA project will launch an ambitious new phase of development of the Tyndall Centre UIAF in order to understand better the vulnerability and resilience of urban areas. The ARCADIA project is highly interdisciplinary and involves input from an influential group of stakeholders from business and local and central government, with interests in planning, infrastructure, the built environment and climate change adaptation and mitigation. This group will work with the research team to ensure that the project is orientated towards user needs. Indeed the first research task will involve close work with stakeholders to understand how the advance modelling tools being developed in the Tyndall Centre can best inform decision making. Task 2 will identify the various direct and indirect modes in which climate impacts disrupt urban function and will go on to examine potential adaptation mechanisms and barriers to adaptation. In Task 3 the Tyndall Centre will team up with the Climatic Research Unit at UEA and the Met Office Hadley Centre to develop new probabilistic scenarios for urban areas that are consistent with UKCIP08. Task 4 will model the relationship between climate impacts and the urban economy, in order to identify how the economy may be disrupted by climate change. By analysing change in the economy through time and interactions between economic sectors, we will understand better how the urban economy can be made more resilient. Task 5 will combine the economic model developed in Task 4 with a new model of the spatial planning of buildings and infrastructure in urban areas. As well as identifying concentrations of vulnerability, this will enable the simulation of potential redesign of the built environment under different scenarios of climate and other drivers such as employment and changes to the transport system.The final research task will, working with stakeholders, use the new understanding of the vulnerability of urban systems to analyse how adaptation of urban areas can enhance resilience over a range of timescales. The objective will be to make practical proposals for 'adaptation pathways' for cities over the 21st Century to respond strategically to the challenges of flooding, water scarcity and extremes of heat.