Bioenergy value chains: Whole systems analysis and optimisation

英国的大多数能源系统研究表明，生物能源在未来几十年将发挥重要作用，特别是如果英国要实现其减缓气候变化的目标。然而，有必要了解如何在不产生与可持续性有关的负面影响的情况下实施生物能源系统，因此，有必要进行多尺度系统分析，以支持对这些相互关联的问题的理解，并支持围绕土地使用、与粮食生产的相互作用和加速生物能源技术的决策，同时确保量化一系列可持续性措施，并保证最低标准。该项目将建立在生物能源系统模型的基础上（帝国理工学院，RRes，Soton）合作伙伴），并将其与其他模型相结合，包括UK-TIMES模型（UCL），生态系统和资源模型（Soton，Manchester）和国际贸易模型（UCL）。该工具包将用于为英国确定强大和有前途的选择，包括土地使用，资源和技术。这一整体建模框架将能够确定哪些价值链可以最好地促进技术高效，低成本和低碳的英国能源系统。配置模型以避免使用限制生物能源和生物基材料/化学品可用土地数量的边约束，将有助于更好地了解生物质生产如何嵌入英国现有的能源和农业基础设施。该框架将用于探索不同情景下与英国最相关的生物能源价值链和技术发展（如粮食安全程度高/低、生物量进口高/低等）。与更广泛的英国能源模型以及全球资源模型/数据的耦合将确保整体系统和开发的情景的一致性，并确保生物能源在更广泛的英国能源系统中的作用的清晰度。资源和技术模型以及有关未来改进的信息以及采用和传播的要求将被纳入该模型中。还将评估开发的样本价值链对联合王国更广泛的生态系统的影响，特别是在土地利用变化引起的预期关键生态系统服务总体变化方面。还将考虑系统关键技术的技术改进的影响，如2G生物燃料，生物SNG气体和可再生热能的提供。价值链和系统模型的连接将有助于研究增加生物质用于能源和化学品的机会和间接影响，并严格评估温室气体排放和资源消耗的缓解战略，并将纳入更广泛的政策分析活动，该活动将研究从现在到2050年的中间时期不断变化的系统基础设施的动态。- 了解不同生物量技术的潜力和风险，以及对土地使用的相互竞争的要求之间的相互关系-了解生物能源和生物可再生能源的成本降低、生命周期环境概况和系统影响-确定更大的系统整合的影响并建立模型-整合能源、粮食、副产品系统，生物质的梯级利用-了解在联合王国实现生物质的重大贡献（如10%）需要采取哪些措施-并确定动员的预动员/关键途径（资源、政策、机构和时间表）。- 制定方案，描述需要什么样的政策、基础设施、机构等，以及在哪些方面需要生物能源、技术和社会经济以及环境/生态系统，评估与英国生物能源物质水平相关的价值链

Most energy system studies of the UK indicate a strong role for bioenergy in the coming decades, especially if the UK is to meet its climate change mitigation ambitions. However, there is a need to understand how bioenergy systems can be implement without negative sustainability-related implacts.There is therefore a need for multi-scale systems analyses to support the understanding of these inter-related issues and to support decision-making around land use, interactions with food production and acceleration of bioenergy technologies, while ensuring that a range of sustainability measures are quantified and that minimum standards can be guaranteed.This project will build on bioenergy system models (Imperial College, RRes, Soton) partners) and combine it with other models, including the UK-TIMES model (UCL), ecosystem and resource models (Soton, Manchester) and international trade models (UCL). This toolkit will be used to identify robust and promising options for the UK, including land use, resources and technologies.This overall modelling framework would be able to determine which value chains can best contribute to a technologically efficient, low cost and low carbon UK energy system. Configuring the model to avoid the use of side constraints to limit the amount of land available for bioenergy and bio-based materials/chemicals will lead to a better understanding of how biomass production can be intercalated into existing UK energy and agricultural infrastructures.This framework will be used to explore the bioenergy value chains and technology developments most relevant to the UK under different scenarios (e.g. high/low food security, high/low biomass imports etc.). The coupling to wider UK energy models as well as global resource models/data will ensure coherence in the overall systems and scenarios developed and to ensure clarity in the role of bioenergy in the wider UK energy system. Resource and technology models and information on future improvements as well as requirements for adoption and diffusion will be incorporated into the model. Sample value chains developed will also be assessed for their wider ecosystem impacts within the UK, particularly in terms of the change in expected key ecosystem services overall arising from changes in land use against a reference scenario. The implications of technological improvements in system critical technologies such as 2G biofuels, bio-SNG gas and the provision of renewable heat will also be considered. The linking of value chain and system models will help to examine the opportunities and indirect impacts of increased biomass use for energy and chemicals and critically evaluate mitigation strategies for GHG emissions and resource depletion, and will feed into a wider policy analysis activity that will examine the dynamics of changing system infrastructure at intermediate time periods between now and 2050.The key outcomes will include:- Understanding the potential and risks of different biomass technologies, and the interfaces between competing requirements for land use- Understanding cost reductions, lifecycle environmental profiles and system implications of bioenergy and biorenewables- Identifying and modelling the impact of greater system integration -integrated energy, food, by-product systems, and cascading use of biomass- Understanding what it would take to achieve a significant (e.g. 10%) contribution from biomass in the UK - and identify the pre-requisites/critical path for mobilisation (resources, policies, institutions and timescales). - Developing scenarios describing what policies, infrastructure, institutions etc. would be needed and where- Lifecycle, techno- and socio-economic and environmental/ecosystem, evaluation of the value chains associated with a material level of bioenergy in the UK