The Evolution of Public Attitudes During The Brexit Process

尽管脱欧公投已经过去了两年半，但有关英国与欧盟未来关系的许多关键决定尚未做出。英国脱欧谈判的结构方式意味着，例如，英国在多大程度上可以进入单一市场并与之保持一致，是否与欧盟有某种形式的海关协议，是否能够或不能够追求自己的贸易政策，以及英国公民是否仍然可以获得欧洲健康卡等日常安排的讨论尚未发生。与此同时，关于英国是否会与欧盟就脱欧条款达成一致协议，或者是否会重新决定脱欧，仍然存在一些不确定性。因为脱欧的决定是大多数选民在公投中做出选择的结果，所以关于英国人是否仍然想要离开欧盟，如果是的话，他们想要什么样的英国退欧的主张和反主张，在有关英国退欧的政治和政策辩论中可能是一种有价值的货币。因此，这些主张和反诉必须受到严格审查。这项研究金将承担并促进这种审查。它将利用公开的民意调查数据和自己的调查研究，绘制和分析公众对英国脱欧辩论的偏好、评估和认同，这一时期对塑造英国与欧盟未来的关系至关重要。这样做的目的是为欧盟公共政策的发展提供信息，并提高有关英国脱欧的公开辩论中使用的证据的质量。该研究金将特别侧重于以下问题：英国退欧进程的最终结果是让大多数留欧派和脱欧派支持者都满意，还是这两个群体之间明显的两极分化以及他们之间的强烈情绪没有得到解决？在英国脱欧过程结束时，最初的脱欧决定是否仍然得到大多数选民的支持？在这一过程中，态度的演变对自由民主国家使用公投的辩论有什么影响？为什么选民会改变或不改变他们对英国脱欧的可取性和后果的看法？英国脱欧进程对人们对英国治理方式的态度和信任程度有什么影响，尤其是对苏格兰独立的态度？英国脱欧进程对英国政党的支持模式有何影响？选民们希望英国如何利用脱欧后可能获得的更大的政策自主权？奖学金的成果将主要通过两个网站提供。第一个是whatukthinks.org/eu，它提供了与英国退欧辩论相关的全面、易于访问和搜索的民意调查数据集合，以及博客和较长的分析论文。另一个是whatscotlandthinks.org，提供类似的工具和信息，了解公众对英国各地区应如何治理的态度，并特别强调苏格兰的宪法辩论。此外，与ESRC的“变化中的欧洲中的英国”倡议合作，该奖学金将利用社会和传统媒体、公共和私人演讲、年度英国社会态度系列的章节、学术论文和演讲，向学者、政策制定者和更广泛的公众传播其研究结果。

Although two and a half years have passed since the EU referendum, many of the key decisions about the UK's future relationship with the EU have yet to be made. The way in which the Brexit negotiations have been structured means that, for example, discussion of the extent to which the UK has access to and aligns itself with the single market, whether or not it has some form of customs agreement with the EU, whether it is able or unable to pursue its own trade policy, and whether UK citizens will still have access to such everyday arrangements as the European Health Card, has yet to take place. Meanwhile there is still some uncertainty as to whether the UK will reach an agreed deal with the EU on the terms of its departure - or whether the decision to leave the EU itself might be reopened.Because the decision to leave the EU is the product of the choice that a majority of voters made in a referendum, claims and counterclaims about whether people in Britain still want to leave the EU and, if so, what kind of Brexit they want, are a potentially valuable currency in the political and policy debate about Brexit. It is therefore important that these claims and counterclaims are subjected to critical scrutiny. This fellowship will undertake and facilitate such scrutiny. Using a mixture of publicly available polling data and its own survey research, it will chart and analyse public preferences, evaluations and identities of relevance to the debate about Brexit during a period that will be crucial in shaping the UK's future relationship with the EU. In so doing its aim is to inform the development of public policy on the EU and enhance the quality of the evidence used in the public debate about Brexit. The fellowship will focus in particular on the following questions:1. Is the eventual outcome of the Brexit process one that satisfies a majority of both Remain voters and Leave supporters, or is the apparent polarisation between these two groups and the intensity of feeling among them left unresolved?2. Is the original decision to leave the EU still supported by a majority of voters at the end of the Brexit process, and what are the implications of the evolution of attitudes during that process for the debate about the use of referendums in liberal democracies?3. Why do voters change - or not change - their minds about the desirability and consequences of Brexit?4. What impact does the Brexit process have on attitudes towards and levels of trust in how the UK is governed, including in particular on attitudes towards Scottish independence?5. What impact does the Brexit process have on the pattern of support for the UK's political parties?6. How would voters like the UK to use the greater policy autonomy that it is likely to possess as a result of leaving the EU?The fruits of the fellowship will be made available primarily via two websites. The first, whatukthinks.org/eu, provides a comprehensive and easily accessible and searchable collection of polling data of relevance to the debate about Brexit, together with blogs and longer analysis papers. The other, whatscotlandthinks.org, provides similar facilities and information in respect of public attitudes towards how the various parts of Britain should be governed, with a particular emphasis on the constitutional debate in Scotland. In addition, and working in collaboration with the ESRC's 'The UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, the fellowship will use social and conventional media, public and private presentations, chapters in the annual British Social Attitudes series, and academic papers and presentations in order to disseminate its findings to academics, policy-makers and the wider public.