APPOSITE: Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales

北极是一个气候变化迅速的地区。APPOSITE是一个拟议的三年研究计划，重点是提高我们在季节到年际时间尺度上预测北极气候的能力。北极预测对在北极地区生活和工作的人们以及为有关该地区的重要政策决策提供信息都具有重要价值。此外，北极地区对北极以外的气候产生影响。因此，改进北极气候的预测可能会提高我们预测中纬度地区气候的能力，例如欧洲，在类似的季节到年际时间尺度上，建立这样的北极预报系统将是一项复杂的任务，涉及到建立一个详细的观测系统来监测北极气候，以及可以使用这些观测来提高预测能力的复杂预报模型。在致力于这样一个方案之前，重要的第一步是评估这样一个系统可能带来的好处。APPOSITE是专门设计来提供这种评估，通过回答四个关键问题：1）我们可以预测北极气候的哪些方面？2)我们能提前多久预测这些方面？这取决于季节吗？3)什么物理过程和机制负责这种可预测性？4)预测模型的哪些方面应该优先发展？APPOSITE将使用最先进的气候模型来回答这些问题。这些问题的答案将成为今后在国家和国际上发展季节性到年际北极预报系统的关键部分。

The Arctic is a region experiencing rapid climate changes. APPOSITE is a proposed three year research programme focusing on improving our ability to forecast the climate of the Arctic on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Arctic predictions would be of great value to both the people that live and work in the Arctic regions and also for informing important policy decisions about the region. Additionally, the Arctic region exerts an influence on the climate outside the Arctic. Hence improved forecasts of Arctic climate may increase our ability to forecast climate in mid-latitude regions, such as Europe, on similar seasonal to inter-annual timescales.Building such Arctic forecast systems will be a complex task, involving the construction of a detailed observation system to monitor Arctic climate, and sophisticated forecast models that can use these observations to enhance predictive capabilities. An important first step before committing to such a programme, is to assess the likely benefits that such a system may bring. APPOSITE is specifically designed to provide this assessment by answering four key questions: 1) What aspects of Arctic climate can we predict? 2) How far in advance can we predict these aspects? Does this depend on the season? 3) What physical processes and mechanisms are responsible for this predictability? 4) What aspects of forecast models should be prioritised for development?APPOSITE will use state-of-the art climate models to answer these questions. The answers to these questions will form a key part of the future development of seasonal to inter-annual Arctic forecasting systems nationally and internationally.