Risks and Responses to Urban Futures: integrating peri-urban/urban synergies into urban development planning for enhanced ecosystem service benefits.

城市化为许多人创造了新的机会，同时也导致贫困和环境退化在城郊地区急剧增加。城郊地区位于城乡结合部，将农村生计与城市生活方式联系在一起，给城郊生态系统带来多重压力。这对越来越多被剥夺权利、贫穷和边缘化的公民的健康和生计以及可持续城市发展构成巨大挑战。提供食物和水等基本服务的城市政策利用了来自城市周边地区和越来越远的地方的生态系统服务。与此同时，向城郊地区出口污染活动和生活废物使环境污染恶化，对城市和城郊社区产生不利影响。本研究项目旨在探讨印度城市周边地区ES与贫困之间的交叉点及其对城市发展的影响。我们的首要研究假设是，更好地理解城郊ES及其与扶贫的关系将产生知识并动员人们，进而产生更有效的城市发展举措。这将在城市和城郊社区之间建立急需的协同作用，以支持减轻贫穷的目标。为了更好地理解高动态城市周边景观中生态系统与人类福祉的复杂相互作用，我们将使用时空建模来分析相互作用和权衡。这将涉及将一手数据和二手数据结合起来，并开发新的建模方法，这些方法可用于支持提高生态环境效益和支持城市规划进程的举措。实证详细的案例研究将在德里的国家首都地区进行。我们将与城郊社区合作，研究生态系统（强调与农业和粮食系统相关的生态系统的原始数据收集）与贫困的多个层面（强调健康）之间的关系。我们利用这些新知识为受影响社区确定具体的、地方的、技术的和体制的干预措施，这将有助于维持生态系统及其所支持的生计。我们还将确定政策切入点，与不同的利益相关者合作，研究将对城郊可持续发展和减贫目标之间相互作用的理解纳入决策过程和实施的潜力。目标政策和方案将包括与国家城市园艺倡议有关的政策和方案，该倡议旨在支助城郊生产者和确保向城市供应新鲜农产品，以及城市废物管理和污染控制计划。空间分析将成为支持与政策行为者对话的工具基础。为了进行比较，另外五个城市（海得拉巴、班加罗尔、瓦拉纳西、加德满都和达卡）周边的部分城市将以更粗略的分辨率绘制地图，并根据详细案例研究中确定的重要性选择ES子集，使用为德里开发的工具进行建模。利用来自5个城市和德里的数据，我们将探索时间序列、时空替代和情景的使用，以探索当前（和未来）政策对ES和依赖生计的可能影响的叙述和定量模型的使用。我们还将积极参与其他南亚城市的倡议，通过与项目相关的活动，与其他印度城市以及尼泊尔和孟加拉国的合作伙伴建立网络。这一网络将促进共同开发可更广泛应用的政策参与研究方法和工具。

Urbanisation brings the creation of new opportunities for many, while also resulting in a dramatic increase in the concentration of poverty and environmental degradation in peri-urban zones. Peri-urban areas, at the interface between urban and rural, link rural livelihoods with the urban lifestyles that put multiple pressures on peri-urban ecosystems. This poses huge challenges for the health and livelihoods of an increasing number of disenfranchised, poor and marginalised citizens, and for the sustainable urban development.Urban policies for provision of essential services such as food and water, draw upon ecosystem services (ES) from the peri-urban zone and from further and further afield. At the same time the export of polluting activities and domestic waste to peri-urban localities degrades ES, with adverse implications for urban and peri-urban communities.This research project aims to explore the intersections between ES and poverty in peri-urban areas of India, and implications for urban development. Our overarching research hypothesis is that a better understanding of peri-urban ES and relationships with poverty alleviation will generate knowledge and mobilize people, and in turn generate more effective urban development initiatives. These will build much needed synergies between urban and peri-urban communities to support poverty alleviation goals.To better understand the complex interactions of ES and human well-being in highly dynamic peri-urban landscapes, we will use spatio-temporal modelling to analyse interactions and trade-offs. This will involve a combination of primary and secondary data and the development of new approaches to modelling that could be used to support initiatives to enhance ES benefits and support urban planning processes.Empirical detailed case studies will be carried out in Delhi's National Capital Territory. We will work with peri-urban communities to examine the relationship between ES (emphasis on primary data collection for ES associated with agriculture and food systems) and multiple dimensions of poverty (emphasis on health). We use this new knowledge to identify specific, local, technical and institutional interventions with affected communities, that will help to sustain ES and the livelihoods that they support. We will also identify policy entry points, working with diverse stakeholders to examine the potential to integrate an understanding of the interaction between peri-urban ES and poverty alleviation goals into decision making processes and implementation. Target policies and programmes will include those associated with the national urban horticulture initiative, which aims to support peri-urban producers and ensure a supply of fresh produce to cities, and urban waste management and pollution control plans. The spatial analyses will form the basis of tools to support dialogue with policy actors.For comparison, parts of peri-urban areas around five additional cities (Hyderabad, Bangalore, Varanasi, Kathmandu and Dhaka) will be mapped at coarser resolution and a subset of ES, selected based on their importance identified in the detailed case studies, will be modelled using tools developed for Delhi. Using data from 5 cities and Delhi we will explore the use of time-series, space-for-time substitution and scenarios to explore the use of narratives and quantitative models of the likely impacts of current (and future) policies on ES and dependent livelihoods.We will also actively engage with initiatives in other south Asian cities, building a network with partners from other Indian cities and in Nepal and Bangladesh through project-linked activities. This network will facilitate the joint development of research approaches and tools for policy engagement that can be applied more widely.