Multi-scale adaptations to climate change and social-ecological sustainability in coastal areas (MAGIC)

适应计划在全球越来越受欢迎。虽然一些适应产生了有益的结果，但许多适应对决策者本身或其他利益攸关方都产生了意想不到的后果。这在沿海地区尤其重要，因为那里的海洋和陆地适应都有影响，而且人类的压力最大。我们认为，更好地了解沿海地区驱动适应的潜在社会生态过程，特别是生物物理变化风险、认知过程和适应之间的反馈，将减少适应不良的发生率，同时增加双赢适应的频率。我们使用“私人主动适应气候变化”模型（Grothmann & Patt 2005）来评估以下因素之间的相互作用：a)气候变化带来的实际风险；B)感知风险和感知适应能力等认知因素；c)适应性;d)决策者参与建模过程时的情境学习。我们在三个尺度上评估了这些驱动因素与沿海地区适应计划之间的关系：个体决策者；当地实践社区；以及地区规划当局。与决策者共同参与的模型可以对增强沿海复原力产生持久的影响。在三个沿海地区：法国的朗格多克-鲁西永；英国的康沃尔；和南非花园大道海岸，我们将找出四个例子，在这些例子中，用户、实践社区和地区当局制定了适应计划和战略，导致脆弱性从一个部门、规模或地方意外转移到另一个部门、规模或地方。我们将使用现有的经验数据和模型，参与式主体建模，解释性方法；以及在建模过程中的反身性学习，以催化和评估设计适应计划的决策者的认知知觉的变化。

Adaptation plans have become increasingly popular across the globe. While some adaptations have beneficial outcomes, many adaptations have unintended consequences for vulnerability, either for the decision makers themselves or for other stakeholders. This is particularly relevant in coastal zones where both marine and land-based adaptations have an impact and where human pressures are greatest.We believe a better understanding of the underlying social-ecological processes driving adaptation in coastal areas, and particularly the feedbacks between risk from biophysical change, cognitive processes, and adaptation, will reduce the incidence of maladaptations while increasing the frequency of win-win adaptations. We use a model of "private proactive adaptation to climate change" (Grothmann & Patt 2005) to assess the interactions between: a) the actual risk posed by climate change; b) cognitive factors such as perceived risk and perceived adaptive capacity; c) adaptations; and d) situated learning when decisions makers participate in modeling processes. We assess the relationship between these drivers and adaptation plans in coastal areas at three scales: individual decision makers; local communities of practice; and regional planning authorities. Participatory modelling with decision makers could result in lasting impacts for enhanced coastal resilience.In each of three coastal regions: the Languedoc-Rousillon in France; Cornwall in the UK; and the Garden Route coast in South Africa, we will identify four examples where users, communities of practice, and regional authorities have developed adaptation plans and strategies resulting in the unintended transfer of vulnerability from one sector, scale or place to another. We will use available empirical data and models, participatory agent-based modeling, interpretative methods; and reflexive learning during the modeling process to catalyze and assess changes in the cognitive perceptions of decision makers who design adaptation plans.