The completion and testing of a Aftershock Forecasting Tool for Emergency Response (AFTER)

科学无法预测下一次地震的地点、时间和规模，但阿尔斯特大学地球物理学小组与一个活跃的非政府组织合作伙伴“全球关注”共同制定了一套方法，有望对余震的强度和空间分布提供有用的、近实时的概率预测。更广泛的人道主义和减少灾害风险（DRR）社区可以使用这种工具来指导优先考虑人道主义响应活动的决定（例如在哪里安置流离失所者营地和办公室以及工作人员的住宿），并改善幸存者的咨询和认识。阿尔斯特大学地球物理学小组与全球关注组织合作，提供了一个NERC PURE协会（NPA）项目，该项目：1。开发了原型软件工具，以便在地震灾害应急响应阶段对余震危险进行近实时评估。2.用这个工具来探索：a.可供人道主义组织使用的科学上可回答的问题B.人道主义工作者的培训和支助需求。在应急规划和响应过程中可以指导工具使用的协议。最合适的用户界面和沟通风险和不确定性的方式。为了从理论上转变为真实的工作方法，以指导在生死情况下的人道主义决策，必须做四件事：1。开发了适当的统计工具，并用于在较长时间内严格测试该方法2。工具的有效性必须通过一个由国际领先科学家组成的小组进行深入的同行评审来保证3。制定战略，使人道主义和政府行为体更广泛地“接受”，并将这一办法纳入主流。继续制定办法，以满足国家行动计划项目中确定的人道主义部门的特殊需要。为了解决这些问题，我们在这里提出了余震应急响应预测工具（AFTER）项目。在AFTER中，我们将开发原始项目中的想法，以充分证明概念状态，包括制作研究级程序，该程序专门针对科学的限制和用户的操作需求。在项目期间，我们将拥有科学，通过它应用的协议以及我们确保准确理解不确定性的背景，这些不确定性构成了任何地震预报计划的核心部分以及人道主义效用，由国际专家小组在整个项目期间定期召集。我们还将努力将这一议定书纳入更广泛的人道主义社区的主流。人道主义领域的一些重要角色已经表示有兴趣参加。该项目将对地震后情况下的人道主义和减灾政策和行动产生重大影响。它将把循证决策的新领域引入现有的应急规划和响应以及减少灾害风险干预措施。它将创建一个新的工具，用于全面的灾害和脆弱性分析、管理和规划。它将为生死决定提供信息，并为拯救生命和减轻痛苦的核心人道主义目标做出真实的贡献。

Science cannot predict where, when and what size the next earthquake will be but the University of Ulster Geophysics group have, with Concern Worldwide, an active NGO partner, co-produced approaches that promise to give useful, near real-time probabilistic forecasts of the intensity and spatial distribution of aftershocks. Such a tool could be used by the wider humanitarian and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) communities, to guide decisions on prioritising humanitarian response activities, (such as where to site displacement camps and offices and accommodation for staff) and well as improve advice and awareness of survivors. The University of Ulster Geophysics Group in partnership with Concern Worldwide delivered a NERC PURE Associates (NPA) project that: 1. Developed prototype software tools to make a near real-time assessment of aftershock hazard during the emergency response phase of earthquake disaster. 2. Used this tool to explore: a. the scientifically answerable questions of use to humanitarian organisations b. The training and support needs of the humanitarian practitioners c. The protocols that could guide tool use within emergency planning and response processes d. The most appropriate user interface and ways of communicating risk and uncertainty. To move from a theoretical, to a real working approach that will guide humanitarian decision making in life and death situations, four things MUST be done: 1. Appropriate statistical tools developed, and used to rigorously test the approach over an extended period of time 2. Tool validity must be guaranteed through intensive peer review by a panel of leading international scientists 3. A strategy developed to deliver wider 'buy-in' by humanitarian and government actors and the mainstreaming of the approach 4. Continue to develop the approach in response to the particular needs of the humanitarian sector identified in the NPA project. To address these issues we here propose the Aftershock Forecasting Tool for Emergency Response (AFTER) project. In AFTER we will develop the ideas in the original projects to full proof of concept status including the production of a research grade programme which is specifically taylored with both the limitation so of the science and the operational needs of the user in focus. During the project we will have the science, the protocols through which it is applied and the contexts in which we ensure accurate understandings of the uncertainties which form a central part of any earthquake forecasting scheme as well as the humaitarian utility, examined by an international expert panel convened regularly throughout the project. We will also work to mainstream this protocol to the wider humaitarian community. We have already several expressions of interest from important players in the humanitarian field. The project will have a significant impact on Humanitarian and DRR policy and operations in post earthquake situations. It will introduce a new area of evidence-based decision making into existing emergency planning and response and DRR interventions. It will create a new tool to be incorporated in holistic hazard and vulnerability analysis, management and planning. It will inform life and death decisions, and make a real contribution to the core humanitarian aims to save lives and alleviate suffering.