International - Jordan Water Security Portal

约旦被认为是世界上最缺水的国家，由于人口和人均用水量的增加、气候变化和基础设施的老化，水资源面临越来越大的压力。目前地下水采取量几乎是可持续产量的两倍，地表水资源得到充分利用。使这些问题更加恶化的是，在过去10年中，从叙利亚和伊拉克涌入约旦的冲突难民使约旦大约600万的人口增加了大约300万。国际援助为难民营提供了水基础设施投资，但这种增加的使用影响了约旦的可用水资源。未能对未来作出充分规划，将导致地下水资源持续不可持续的过度开采、地下水质量退化、制约经济发展以及可能损害约旦和该区域的潜在政治不稳定。约旦计划建设新的基础设施，以确保获得更多的水资源，并确保水能够有效和公平地分配，但其基础设施计划只解决了缺水挑战的一部分；约旦还必须投资于需求管理，减少家庭、商业和农业用水。这可以通过减少浪费和改变用水者的消费模式来实现。有效地结合水供应和需求干预措施并不容易，因为在对未来的不同假设下，不同的组合将产生不同的效果。约旦的水资源规划者需要一种高效和有效的方法来对备选水资源计划进行压力测试。该提案以约旦水项目（JWP）（2013-2017）为基础，该项目由NERC （NE/L009285/2）、美国国家科学基金会和其他国家资助者在贝尔蒙特论坛的背景下资助，由斯坦福大学领导。联合工作小组建立了约旦的国家水利规划模型，该模型在帮助规划者了解和预测系统性能以及测试政策和水利基础设施投资方案方面具有独特的能力。该赠款申请确保了JWP模式取得的成果，使其能够由当地主要项目合作伙伴约旦水和灌溉部（MWI）可持续地主持和实践使用。JWP的中心目标是建立一个综合规划模型，反映到2050年分区空间尺度上的水文、制度和经济行为。该模型的目的是量化由于水文、体制和经济情景和干预措施（政策或基础设施变化）造成的淡水供需变化。除了代表国家水文和工程水资源系统外，JWP模型还能够代表其与约旦水规划的经济、制度和社会方面的时空联系。该模型具有独特的规模和范围，能够通过模拟消费者、决策者和约旦水系统之间的反馈来解释消费者决策的直接和间接影响。建议的工作分为三个“工作包”(1)开发基于浏览器的图形用户界面（GUI），用于系统、数据和结果的可视化；(2)模型改进和扩展；(3)知识交流和能力建设，以利用联合工作计划模型门户进行战略水安全规划。通过与MWI同事的合作，与MWI员工和承包商的知识交流研讨会，出版物和会议演讲，将产生影响。

Jordan is considered the most water scarce country in the world and water resources are under increasing stress due to increasing population and per capita water consumption, climate change, and ageing infrastructure. Groundwater abstraction is currently almost double the sustainable yield and surface water resources are fully exploited. To exacerbate these problems an influx of conflict refugees entered Jordan from Syria and Iraq in the last 10 years, swelling Jordan's population of approximately 6 million by around 3 million. International aid provided water infrastructure investment in refugee camps but this increased use impacted Jordan's available water resources.Failure to plan adequately for the future is leading to continued unsustainable overexploitation of groundwater resources, degradation of groundwater quality, constraining of economic development, and potential political instability which could harm Jordan and the region. Jordan has plans for new infrastructure which will secure additional water resources and ensure that water can be distributed effectively and equitably but their infrastructure plans address only part of the water scarcity challenge; Jordan must also invest in demand management by reducing household, commercial and agricultural water consumption. This could be achieved through reducing wastage and through changing consumption patterns of water consumers. Effectively combining water supply and demand interventions is not easy as different combinations will perform differently under different assumptions about the future. Jordanian water planners need an efficient and effective way to stress test alternative water plans. This proposal builds on the Jordan Water Project (JWP) (2013-2017) which was funded by NERC (NE/L009285/2), the U.S. National Science Foundation and other national funders in the context of a Belmont Forum and led by Stanford University. The JWP built a national water planning model of Jordan, unique in its ability to help planners understand and predict system performance and to test policy and water infrastructure investment alternatives. This grant application secures the gains achieved by the JWP model by preparing it to be sustainably hosted and used in practice by the Jordanian Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI), the main local project partner.The central objective of the JWP was to build an integrated planning model reflecting hydrologic, institutional and economic behaviour at the sub-district spatial scale through to 2050. The purpose of the model was to quantify freshwater supply and demand changes due to hydrological, institutional and economic scenarios and interventions (policy or infrastructure changes). In addition to representing the national hydrological and engineered water resource system, the JWP model is able to represent its links to the economic, institutional, and social aspects of water planning in Jordan over space and time. The model is of unique scale and scope in its ability to account for direct and indirect impacts of consumer decisions by simulating the feedback between consumers, policy makers and the Jordanian water system. The proposed work is divided into three 'Work Packages' (1) development of the browser-based graphical user interface (GUI) for system, data and results visualisation; (2) model improvements and extensions; and (3) knowledge exchange and capacity building for using the JWP model portal for strategic water security planning. Impact will be achieved through working with MWI colleagues, knowledge exchange workshops with MWI employees and contractors, publications, and conference presentations.