Low fertility in the Islamic Republic of Iran

描述（由申请人提供）：了解低生育率的变化是当代人口学中最重要的主题之一。目前生育率最低的一些国家是具有“牢固家庭制度”的发达国家（如意大利、西班牙、日本）。一个关键问题是许多国家目前接近其生育过渡结束时的生育率“过渡后水平”。1979年伊朗革命后，伊朗的生育率急剧上升，但在过去20年里，生育率下降到较低水平，目前生育率略高于整个国家的更替水平。但有些地区2000年的总生育率约为1.6。我们建议使用新的数据来探索这个低生育率的穆斯林国家的生育动机。我们提出假设，表明低生育率是可能的，而替代生育率与更适度的（替代）生育率水平相一致。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Understanding variation in low fertility is among the most important topics in contemporary demography. Some of the lowest contemporary fertility rates are in developed countries with "strong family systems" (e.g., Italy, Spain, Japan). A key question is the "post-transition level" of fertility in many countries now nearing the end of their fertility transition. Iran experienced a dramatic fertility increase after the Iranian 1979 Revolution, but fertility has declined to low levels in the past two decades with fertility now slightly over replacement level for the country as a whole. But some regions have a 2000 TFR of approximately 1.6. We propose to use new data to explore fertility motivations in this low fertility, Muslim country. We develop hypotheses that suggest that low fertility is likely and alternative ones consistent with more modest (replacement) levels of fertility.