Ecological Modeling of College Drinking

描述(申请人提供)：大学生饮酒的生态系统模型。 该项目的总体目标是在数学建模的基础上为酒精政策研究建立一个新的实验范式。为了实现这一目标，一个拥有酒精政策研究、理论生态系统建模、计算机建模和模拟以及软件工程专业知识的多学科研究团队聚集在一起，目标是开发基于预测过程的大学饮酒模型，该模型将用于在多校园实验系统中检验中心研究假设。 假设：校园层面的衡量标准表明，在更少的酒精控制政策、更多的酒精广告、更高的酒精销售点密度和更少的酒精政策执行方面，表明更好的身体和社会可用性的校园水平指标与研究校园中更高水平的个人饮酒行为和结果相关，即使在控制了大学饮酒的个人水平预测因素之后也是如此。 在模型开发和测试过程中将实现四个主要目标。 目标1：建立一个大学生饮酒行为的认知模型，该模型成功地捕捉到美国许多大学中存在的与个人-情境不匹配相关的多层次因果动态。 目的2：建立一套能够简单反映认知模型中多层次、多维动态特征的大学生饮酒确定性模型。 目标3：通过对模型类型、模型复杂度和参数值的检验，对候选模型进行转换，得到最稳健的模型。 目标4：使用一个需要在多所大学复制成功预测大学饮酒结果的实验系统，用所产生的基于过程的模型来检验研究假设。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Ecosystems Modeling of College Drinking. The overall goal of the project is to establish a new experimental paradigm for alcohol policy studies based in mathematical modeling. To accomplish this goal a multidisciplinary team of researchers with expertise in alcohol policy research, theoretical ecosystem modeling, computer modeling and simulation, and software engineering have been brought together with the goal of developing predictive process-based models of college drinking that will be used to test central study hypotheses in a multi-campus experimental system. Hypothesis: Campus level measures indicating greater physical and social availability - in terms of fewer alcohol control policies, greater alcohol advertising, higher densities of alcohol outlets, and less alcohol policy enforcement - are associated with higher levels of individual drinking behavior and outcomes across study campuses even after controlling for individual level predictors of college drinking. Four major objectives will be achieved in the process of model development and testing. Objective 1: To generate a cognitive model of college drinking behavior that successfully captures the multilevel causal dynamic associated with individual-context mismatch that exists at many US colleges. Objective 2: To formulate a set of deterministic models of college drinking that simply capture the multilevel, multidimensional dynamic evidenced in the cognitive models. Objective 3: To transition the candidate models through tests of model type, model complexity and parameter values to arrive at the most robust models resulting from the transition process. Objective 4: To test study hypotheses with the resulting process-based models using an experimental system that requires successful prediction of college drinking outcomes replicated across multiple colleges.