Generating the responsible assessment of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal 'technology'

我的研究项目的目的是调查和改进造林作为一种温室气体去除“技术”的评估，使用英国和葡萄牙作为比较案例研究。为实现《巴黎协定》中“远低于”工业化前水平升高2摄氏度的目标，大规模植树造林是IPCC提出的几种选择之一。然而，与其他温室气体减排方式相比，公众对植树造林的参与是深刻的、长期的和丰富的：作为一种古老的人类实践，植树造林很难被称为“新兴技术”。在今后50年里，平衡土地利用变化的竞争性要求的必要性将变得日益突出。大规模实施植树造林将影响土地系统、生态系统、农业、生物多样性、生计、社会经济和文化。在目前的评估中很难捕捉到这些影响。弄清楚如何在这个高度协商的领域做出基于证据的、公平的、平衡的、社会可接受的决定，是社会科学的一项关键任务。最近的研究已经确定，对陆基缓解气候变化备选办法的“负责任评估”是一个需要进一步调查的关键缺口。然而，迄今为止，很少有社会科学研究造林作为减少温室气体的一种选择。进一步的研究对于推进负责任评估造林以缓解气候变化的原则以及调查整合公共和社会技术或政策话语的潜在挑战和机遇至关重要。让公众了解新兴技术的传统方法往往假定需要进行“教育”。这个项目从相反的方向出发，假设专家机构需要更好地倾听公众已经存在的知识和价值观，并采取行动。包容是负责任评估的一个关键维度，但这项工作也旨在促进对“制度反身性”的理解：即机构对自身规范和实践的反思。英国是欧洲森林密度最低的国家之一，但通过目前英国资助的温室气体减排研究计划，全国关注不同的温室气体减排技术（包括大规模植树造林），这为调查这一研究领域提供了及时的机会。葡萄牙是一个有趣的比较对象，它是欧洲森林最茂密的国家之一，并且已经开展了一些大规模的造林项目。然而，随着大量非本地桉树种植园的种植，自2017年以来每年都会发生大规模的森林火灾，以及对气候变化问题的高度认识，公共团体和政策制定者可能会有与英国不同的观点和优先事项。创造可行的脱碳途径，同时实现其他陆基目标，将需要对各种选择进行新的、负责任的评估，这些评估既要广泛又要深入。该项目将绘制现有的科学政策和公众与造林的关系图，并将利用这些见解来研究和推进对温室气体减排造林的负责任评估。在科学和技术研究的基础上，利用对环境科学与政策制定界面的建构主义理解，目标是提出务实、详细的建议，以便将公共团体纳入未来的气候政策评估过程，并增加相关机构的反思能力。一项关键产出将是一套负责任评估造林作为一种温室气体清除技术的准则。这项紧迫的研究结果可能对决策者、科学家和公众都有很大的实际贡献，因为各国都在努力调和它们的社会和经济轨迹——以及它们的多重视角——与“远低于”2摄氏度的全球变暖目标。

The aim of my research project is to investigate and improve the assessment of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal 'technology', using the UK and Portugal as comparative case studies. Large-scale afforestation is one of several options proposed by the IPCC to reach the Paris Agreement's target of 'well below' 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, in contrast to other greenhouse gas removal approaches, public involvement with afforestation is deep, longstanding and rich: as an ancient human practice, it is difficult to call tree planting an 'emerging technology'. The need to balance competing claims for land-use change will become increasingly prominent over the next 50 years. Implementing afforestation on a large scale will affect land systems, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity, livelihoods, socio-economy and culture. These effects are difficult to capture within current assessments. Figuring out how to make evidence-based, equitable, balanced, socially acceptable decisions in this highly negotiated space is a crucial task for the social sciences. Recent research has identified 'responsible assessment' of land-based climate mitigation options as a key gap needing further investigation. However, to date, there have been very few social science studies on afforestation as an option for greenhouse gas reduction. Further research is vital to advance principles for responsible assessments of afforestation for climate mitigation and to investigate the potential challenges and opportunities for integrating public and socio-technical or policy discourses. Conventional approaches to public knowledge around emerging technology tend to assume the need to 'educate'. This project approaches from the opposite direction, positing that expert institutions need to listen better to, and act on, public knowledges and values that already exist. Inclusion is a key dimension of responsible assessment, but this work also intends to advance understanding of 'institutional reflexivity': institutions reflecting on their own norms and practices. The UK is among the least densely forested countries in Europe, but national attention has been given to different greenhouse gas reduction technologies (including large-scale afforestation) via the current UKRI-funded Greenhouse Gas Reduction Research Programme, which provides a timely opportunity to investigate this research area. Portugal serves as an interesting comparator, as one of the most densely forested countries in Europe, and with some large-scale afforestation projects already happening. However, with large plantations of non-native eucalyptus, massive forest fires every year since 2017 and a high awareness of climate change issues, public groups and policymakers may have a different set of perspectives and priorities than in the UK. Creating realisable pathways to decarbonisation, while delivering other land-based targets will require new, responsible appraisals of the options, which are both wide-ranging and in-depth. This project will map the existing sciencepolicy and public interfaces with afforestation and will use these insights to study and advance responsible assessments of afforestation for greenhouse gas removal. With a basis in science and technology studies and drawing on constructivist understandings of the environmental science-policymaking interface, the objective is to generate pragmatic, detailed recommendations for including public groups in future climate policy assessment processes, and for increasing the reflexivity of relevant institutions. A key output will be a set of guidelines for responsible assessment of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal technology. The results of this pressing research have potentially a large practical contribution for policymakers, scientists and publics alike, as countries struggle to reconcile their societal and economic trajectories - and their multiple perspectives - with global warming targets of 'well below' 2C.