An Evaluation of the Night Restriction and Passenger Limitation Components of Gra

描述（由申请人提供）：以前的研究表明，GDL法律减少了16岁和17岁司机的撞车总数。对新手驾驶事故的分析表明，64%的事故涉及夜间事故或未成年司机运送未成年乘客的事故。这导致在大多数GDL法律中都包含了限制夜间驾驶和在单独驾驶初期携带未成年乘客的规定。安全倡导者和州立法者对GDL法律的热情有所增加，目前，大约有44个州有这样的立法。然而，许多州缺乏夜间和乘客禁令的典范，而这似乎是有效法律的重要因素。此外，目前尚不清楚16岁和17岁司机撞车事故的减少是GDL法律减少了申请驾照的青少年数量的结果，还是GDL法律要求加强驾驶监管的保护性影响。这个研究项目的目标是超越以往的GDL研究，除了一项研究外，其他研究都是使用单个州进行的。通过使用全国50个州加上DC的16年致命车祸普查数据，我们计划解决以下问题：(1)GDL法律在多大程度上减少了16岁和17岁司机的致命车祸？(2) GDL法律中的夜间限制在多大程度上减少了新手驾驶员在夜间和总体上的致命碰撞？(3)乘客限制在多大程度上减少了新手司机在运送青少年乘客时发生的致命事故？(4)如果有的话，性别和种族/民族在塑造GDL计划的效果中起什么作用？(5)州GDL法律在多大程度上阻碍或推迟了16岁和17岁青少年申请驾照的决定，从而减少了他们参与车祸的风险？将使用死亡分析报告系统（FARS） 16年（1990年至2005年）的数据，对51个司法管辖区（50个州加上华盛顿特区）16岁和17岁司机的驾驶执照率和致命车祸的参与情况进行研究。为了获得GDL规律的广义效应大小估计，将使用纵向面板方法或“横截面时间序列”方法进行分析。两项特殊限制条款将分别进行分析，如果共线性问题不严重，将同时进行分析。为了评价GDL的两项特别规定，将设立适当的事故分类（夜间事故和有乘客的事故）。这两项限制所提供的额外致命事故节省将在没有这些特性的情况下确定。人口和驾照驾驶员记录将用于计算许可率，这些率将与州GDL法律的存在与否有关。最后，将分析性别和种族/民族对有GDL和没有GDL或没有这两个关键组成部分的州的新手驾驶员致命碰撞参与率的潜在影响。本研究将为政策制定者提供指导，说明在现有的分级驾驶执照（GDL）法律中增加夜间和乘客限制条款的潜在好处，或确保新的GDL法律包含此类条款的好处。性别和种族/民族将在GDL计划的有效性中发挥的作用（如果有的话）将被确定，以及GDL通过减少许可而对青少年车祸产生有益影响的程度，与通过增加监督驾驶的保护作用相比。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Previous studies have demonstrated that GDL laws reduce the total number of crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers. Analyses of novice driver crashes have indicated that 64% involve nighttime crashes or crashes in which a teenaged driver was transporting a teen passenger. This has led to the inclusion in most GDL laws of restrictions on nighttime driving and carrying underage passengers during the early period of solo driving. The enthusiasm of safety advocates and state legislators for GDL laws has increased, and currently, some 44 states have such legislation. Many, however, lack the model nighttime and passenger prohibitions that appear to be important elements for effective laws. Further, it is not clear whether the reported reductions in crashes involving 16- and 17-year-old drivers are the result of GDL laws reducing the number of teenagers seeking licenses or the protective impact of the increased driving supervision required by GDL laws. The objective of this research project is to go beyond the previous GDL studies, all but one of which has been conducted using individual states. By using 16 years of data from the national census of fatal crashes for all 50 states plus DC, we plan to address the following questions: (1) To what extent do GDL laws reduce fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers? (2) To what extent do nighttime restrictions in GDL laws reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements during nighttime hours and overall? (3) To what extent do passenger limitations reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements while transporting teen passengers? (4) What is the role, if any, that gender and race/ethnicity play in shaping the effects of GDL programs? (5) To what extent do state GDL laws discourage or delay the decision of 16- and 17-year-olds to seek licensing, thereby reducing their exposure to crash involvement. A 51-jurisdiction (50 states plus DC) study of 16- and 17-year-old driver licensing rates and involvements in fatal crashes using 16 years of data (1990 to 2005) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) will be conducted. To obtain generalized effect-size estimates for the GDL laws, the analyses will be done using a longitudinal panel approach or a "cross-sectional-time series" approach. Two special restriction provisions will be analyzed separately, and if collinearity is not a significant problem, these provisions will be analyzed simultaneously. Appropriate crash subcategories (nighttime crashes and crashes with passengers) will be created to evaluate the two special provisions of GDL laws. The additional fatal crash savings provided by these two restrictions beyond that provided by GDL laws will be determined without such features. Population and license driver records will be used to compute licensing rates and those rates will be related to the presence or absence of a state GDL law. Finally, the potential effects that gender and race/ethnicity have on novice driver fatal crash involvement rates in states with GDL and states without GDL or without the two key components will be analyzed. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE STATEMENT This study will provide guidance to policymakers on the potential benefits of adding nighttime and passenger restriction provisions to an existing graduated driver licensing (GDL) law or the benefit of ensuring that a new GDL law contains such provisions. The role (if any) that gender and race/ethnicity will play in the effectiveness of GDL programs will be determined, and the extent to which GDL produces its beneficial effect on teen crashes by reducing licensing compared to through the protective effect of additional supervised driving.