Developing a state-level health impact assessment of climate change in Wisconsin

描述(申请人提供)：在最近的过去，威斯康星州经历了严重的极端天气事件，对从农业到商业、住房和人类健康的所有与人口健康相关的社会部门都造成了损失。这一研究项目的总体目标是开发当前和与气候变化有关的降水量变率的预测模型，这些降水量变率在全州范围内构成公共卫生准备所需的环境健康风险。具体地说，我们将：1)建立“健康影响评估”框架，并动员威斯康星州各地的主要专家和利益相关者，以便我们的预测模型的最终用户和政策制定者可以在项目开始时包括在内；2)确定被定义为“危险”降水事件的阈值水平或气候模式特征，并开发与这些危险事件相关的环境污染和随后的胃肠道疾病发病率的预测模型。将制定以下方法：(A)利用国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的北美区域再分析(NIR)，从1979-2007年每隔三小时提供32公里分辨率的温度、降水和其他变量的输出，以确定和界定具有重大公共卫生后果的危险降水事件；(B)检查地表水中污水病毒存在与梅诺莫尼河流域气候相关参数之间的相关性；以及(C)利用2002-2008年全州范围的紧急部门就诊数据，探索危险降水事件与全州地方司法管辖区(邮政编码)急性胃肠道疾病发病率之间的联系。3)使用先进的气候模式降尺度方法，预测21世纪中后期威斯康星州危险降水事件未来的公共卫生负担。我们将使用统计和动态缩小的气候模型输出来：a)确定该州内最有可能受到极端天气相关事件影响的地区；b)使用输出分析全州的公共卫生准备和应对能力；以及c)确定未来缓解和适应的地区，以指导政策决策。这项工作的综合性和跨学科性质汇集了气候学、环境公共卫生、水资源、微生物学、病毒学、粪便指标开发和统计建模等领域的关键专业知识。威斯康星州卫生服务部(DHS)将利用其与威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校和该州其他研究合作者的现有气候变化和健康研究。-相关性这一研究项目正在以多种方式处理与当前降水变化带来的风险有关的公共卫生问题，以及未来的气候变化预测。首先，我们正在推进威斯康星州的公共卫生实践和研究，方法是进行公共卫生影响评估，并在这一过程的早期与关键利益攸关方接触。其次，我们正在通过调查与天气有关的胃肠道疾病病因来提高健康决策者的早期预测能力。第三，我们正在扩大知识库，从新获得的缩小比例的全球气候模型中开发与公共卫生有关的工具，供区域和地方一级的公共卫生从业人员使用。最后，我们正在通过探索与气候变化相关的降雨量波动与威斯康星州胃肠道疾病的公共健康负担之间的联系，增加备灾和应对的环境健康信息。这项研究的结果将使负责保护我们的自然资源和保护公共健康的公共卫生管理人员和政府机构能够更好地预防和应对气候变化带来的水媒疾病威胁。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In the recent past, Wisconsin has experienced significant extreme weather events, placing a toll on all population health related sectors of society from agriculture to business, housing, and human health. The overall goal of this research project is to develop predictive models of both current and climate change-related precipitation variability that poses environmental health risks at a statewide scale required for public health preparedness. Specifically, we will: 1) Establish a 'health impact assessment' framework and engage key experts and stakeholders from across Wisconsin so that end-users of our predictive models and policy decision makers may be included at the start of this project; 2) Determine threshold levels or climate pattern signatures defined as 'hazardous' precipitation events and develop predictive models of environmental contamination and subsequent incidence of gastrointestinal illness linked to these hazardous events. Methods will be developed to: a) identify and define hazardous precipitation events with significant public health outcomes using National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), which provides output at 32 km resolution of temperature, precipitation and other variables at three hour intervals from 1979-2007; b) examine the correlation between sewage virus presence in surface water and climate-related parameters in the Menomonee River Watershed; and c) explore the association of hazardous precipitation events and rates of acute gastrointestinal illness by local jurisdictions (zip codes) across the state using statewide emergency department visit data from 2002-2008. 3) Using advanced climate-model downscaling methods, project the future public health burden of hazardous precipitation events in Wisconsin for the middle and late 21st century. We will use both statistically and dynamically downscaled climate model outputs to: a) identify areas within the state that will most likely be impacted by extreme weather-related events; b) use output to analyze public health preparedness and response capabilities across the state; and c) identify areas for future mitigation and adaptation to guide policy decisions. The integrative and interdisciplinary nature of this effort brings together key expertise from across the fields of climatology, environmental public health, water resources, microbiology, virology, fecal indicator development, and statistical modeling. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services' (DHS) will leverage its existing climate change and health research with the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other research collaborators in the state. - Relevance This research project is addressing public health in multiple ways related to risks posed by current variability in precipitation, along with future climate change projections. First, we are advancing public health practice and research in the state of Wisconsin by conducting a public health impact assessment and engaging key stakeholders early on in the process. Second, we are improving early predictive capability for health decision makers by investigating weather-related etiology of gastrointestinal illness. Third, we are expanding the knowledge base by developing public health relevant tools from newly available downscaled global climate models for use by public health practitioners at the regional and local level. Finally, we are increasing environmental health information for preparedness and response by exploring the link between climate change-related fluctuations in rainfall on the public health burden of gastrointestinal illness in the state of Wisconsin. The results of this research will enable public health managers and governmental agencies charged with preservation of our natural resources and protection of public health to better prevent and respond to waterborne disease threats from climate change.