Developing a state-level health impact assessment of climate change in Wisconsin

描述（由申请人提供）：在最近的过去，威斯康星州经历了重大的极端天气事件，对所有人口健康相关的社会部门，从农业到商业，住房和人类健康的收费。该研究项目的总体目标是开发当前和气候变化相关的降水变化的预测模型，这些降水变化在全州范围内构成公共卫生准备所需的环境健康风险。具体而言，我们将：1）建立一个“健康影响评估”框架，让来自威斯康星州的关键专家和利益相关者参与进来，以便我们的预测模型和政策决策者的最终用户可以在这个项目开始时被包括在内;（二）确定被定义为“危险”降水事件的阈值水平或气候模式特征，并开发环境污染和随后与之相关的胃肠道疾病发病率的预测模型。这些危险事件。将制定方法，以便：a）利用国家环境预测中心（NCEP）的北美区域再分析（NARR），确定和定义具有重大公共卫生后果的危险降水事件，该分析提供了1979-2007年每隔三小时的温度、降水和其他变量的32公里分辨率的输出; B）检查梅诺莫尼河流域地表水中污水病毒存在与气候相关参数之间的相关性;以及c）使用2002-2008年全州范围的急诊部门访问数据，探索全州各地地方管辖区（邮政编码）的危险降水事件与急性胃肠道疾病发生率的关联。3)使用先进的气候模型降尺度方法，预测威斯康星州21世纪中后期有害降水事件的未来公共卫生负担。我们将使用统计和动态缩小尺度的气候模型输出来：a）确定州内最有可能受到极端天气相关事件影响的地区; B）使用输出来分析全州的公共卫生准备和响应能力;以及c）确定未来缓解和适应的领域，以指导政策决策。这项工作的综合性和跨学科性质汇集了气候学，环境公共卫生，水资源，微生物学，病毒学，粪便指标开发和统计建模等领域的关键专业知识。威斯康星州卫生服务部（DHS）将利用其现有的气候变化和健康研究与威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校和其他研究合作者在该州。- 相关性本研究项目正在以多种方式解决公共卫生问题，这些方式与当前降水量变化以及未来气候变化预测沿着所带来的风险有关。首先，我们正在推进公共卫生实践和研究在威斯康星州的状态进行公共卫生影响评估和参与的过程中早期的关键利益相关者。其次，我们正在通过调查与天气有关的胃肠道疾病病因，提高卫生决策者的早期预测能力。第三，我们正在扩大知识基础，根据新提供的缩小规模的全球气候模型开发与公共卫生有关的工具，供区域和地方一级的公共卫生从业人员使用。最后，我们正在通过探索与气候变化有关的降雨量波动与威斯康星州胃肠道疾病的公共卫生负担之间的联系，增加环境卫生信息，以备不时之需。这项研究的结果将使公共卫生管理人员和负责保护我们的自然资源和保护公共卫生的政府机构能够更好地预防和应对气候变化带来的水媒疾病威胁。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In the recent past, Wisconsin has experienced significant extreme weather events, placing a toll on all population health related sectors of society from agriculture to business, housing, and human health. The overall goal of this research project is to develop predictive models of both current and climate change-related precipitation variability that poses environmental health risks at a statewide scale required for public health preparedness. Specifically, we will: 1) Establish a 'health impact assessment' framework and engage key experts and stakeholders from across Wisconsin so that end-users of our predictive models and policy decision makers may be included at the start of this project; 2) Determine threshold levels or climate pattern signatures defined as 'hazardous' precipitation events and develop predictive models of environmental contamination and subsequent incidence of gastrointestinal illness linked to these hazardous events. Methods will be developed to: a) identify and define hazardous precipitation events with significant public health outcomes using National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), which provides output at 32 km resolution of temperature, precipitation and other variables at three hour intervals from 1979-2007; b) examine the correlation between sewage virus presence in surface water and climate-related parameters in the Menomonee River Watershed; and c) explore the association of hazardous precipitation events and rates of acute gastrointestinal illness by local jurisdictions (zip codes) across the state using statewide emergency department visit data from 2002-2008. 3) Using advanced climate-model downscaling methods, project the future public health burden of hazardous precipitation events in Wisconsin for the middle and late 21st century. We will use both statistically and dynamically downscaled climate model outputs to: a) identify areas within the state that will most likely be impacted by extreme weather-related events; b) use output to analyze public health preparedness and response capabilities across the state; and c) identify areas for future mitigation and adaptation to guide policy decisions. The integrative and interdisciplinary nature of this effort brings together key expertise from across the fields of climatology, environmental public health, water resources, microbiology, virology, fecal indicator development, and statistical modeling. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services' (DHS) will leverage its existing climate change and health research with the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other research collaborators in the state. - Relevance This research project is addressing public health in multiple ways related to risks posed by current variability in precipitation, along with future climate change projections. First, we are advancing public health practice and research in the state of Wisconsin by conducting a public health impact assessment and engaging key stakeholders early on in the process. Second, we are improving early predictive capability for health decision makers by investigating weather-related etiology of gastrointestinal illness. Third, we are expanding the knowledge base by developing public health relevant tools from newly available downscaled global climate models for use by public health practitioners at the regional and local level. Finally, we are increasing environmental health information for preparedness and response by exploring the link between climate change-related fluctuations in rainfall on the public health burden of gastrointestinal illness in the state of Wisconsin. The results of this research will enable public health managers and governmental agencies charged with preservation of our natural resources and protection of public health to better prevent and respond to waterborne disease threats from climate change.