Econometric Research on Regulating Menthol Cigarettes and Smoking Cessation

总结 2009年《家庭吸烟预防和烟草控制法》赋予FDA对吸烟的监管权。 烟草制品的生产、分销和营销，以改善公众健康。烟草 产品科学咨询委员会向FDA烟草产品中心（CTP）提出的建议是： 他说：“从市场上撤出薄荷香烟将有利于美国的公共健康。“那 FDA CTP将在未来确定其对薄荷醇的监管方法。的广泛目标 拟议的研究是为了帮助通知FDA CTP的监管机构。为了实现我们的宏伟目标， 运用最先进的经济计量方法研究薄荷醇的使用与吸烟之间的关系 停止具体目标1是使用准实验计量经济学方法研究 薄荷香烟使用和戒烟。我们将分析2003、2006-07和2010-11周期的数据 烟草使用补充目前人口调查（TUS-CPS）。TUS-CPS提供了 美国人口的全国代表性样本，包括当前和以前吸烟者的子样本， 2003年约N= 75，000，2006-07年约N= 70，000，2010-11年约N= 60，000。我们将进行平行分析， 西蒙斯全国消费者调查（NCS）从1995年起的数据，这将提供一个 近80，000名当前和过去一年吸烟者的汇总样本。用准实验的术语来说 计量经济学，我们的主要重点将是因果治疗效果的薄荷醇使用戒烟。 由于这项探索性研究是在R21机制下提出的，我们的目标不是开发一个单一的 “最佳”估计。相反，我们的目标是制定一系列可信的初步估计，更重要的是， 探索国家的潜力，最先进的计量经济学方法，这一新的应用。具体目标二是 对消费者选择薄荷香烟的经济学进行实证调查， 戒烟。我们将使用地理编码信息来合并来自TUS-CPS的个体级数据， NCS受市场需求影响，包括价格和广告。对于NCS数据，我们还将使用 关于受访者阅读杂志习惯的信息，以建立个人层面的潜在接触措施 到杂志上的香烟广告。我们将专注于社会科学经济研究问题： 吸烟者在多大程度上将薄荷醇和非薄荷醇香烟视为相近的替代品;以及 广告在消费者的选择。具体目标3是对以下经济学进行实证调查： 消费者对薄荷香烟的选择。我们将使用对独特问题的回答， 2010-2011年，建立生命过程中薄荷醇使用的近似历史。我们将把目标1和2延伸到 分析这些新的生命历程数据。目标1-3描述了进行探索性和开发性R21的计划 研究涉及NIH FOA中概述的3个研究重点的研究问题 PAR-12-266：了解烟草产品的多样性;营销;经济学和政策。 X

SUMMARY The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act gives the FDA regulatory authority over the manufacture, distribution and marketing of tobacco products in order to improve public health. The Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee's recommendation to the FDA Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) is that: "Removal of menthol cigarettes from the marketplace would benefit public health in the United States." The FDA CTP will make a future determination about its regulatory approach to menthol. The broad goal of the proposed research is to help inform the FDA CTP's regulatory authority. To accomplish our broad goal we will apply state-of-the-art econometric methods to study relationships between the use of menthol and smoking cessation. Specific Aim 1 is to use quasi-experimental econometric methods to study the relationship between menthol cigarette use and smoking cessation. We will analyze data from the 2003, 2006-07 and 2010-11 cycles of the Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). The TUS-CPS provides large nationally representative samples of the US population, including sub-samples of current and former smokers of about N=75,000 in 2003, N=70,000 in 2006-07, and N=60,000 in 2010-11. We will conduct parallel analysis of data from the Simmons National Consumer Survey (NCS) from the 1995 waves onwards, which will provide a pooled sample of almost 80,000 current and past-year smokers. In the terminology of quasi-experimental econometrics, our main focus will be on the causal treatment effect of menthol use on smoking cessation. Because this exploratory research is proposed under the R21 mechanism, we do not aim to develop a single "best" estimate. Instead, we aim to develop a range of credible preliminary estimates, and more importantly, explore the potential of state-of-the-art econometric methods to this novel application. Specific Aim 2 is to conduct an empirical investigation into the economics of consumer choices about menthol cigarettes and smoking cessation. We will use geocode information to merge the individual-level data from the TUS-CPS and NCS with market-level demand influences including prices and advertising. For the NCS data, we will also use information on respondents' magazine-reading habits to create individual-level measures of potential exposure to cigarette advertisements in magazines. We will focus on social science economic research questions about: the extent to which smokers see menthol and non-menthol cigarettes as close substitutes; and the role of advertising in consumer choices. Specific Aim 3 is to conduct an empirical investigation into the economics of consumer choices about menthol cigarettes over the life course. We will use responses to unique questions in the 2010-2011 to build approximate histories of life course menthol use. We will extend Aims 1 & 2 through the analysis of these novel life-course data. Aims 1-3 describe a plan to conduct exploratory and developmental R21 research that addresses research questions that cut across 3 of the Research Priorities outlined in the NIH FOA PAR-12-266: understanding the diversity of tobacco products; marketing; and economics and policies. X