Econometric Research on Regulating Menthol Cigarettes and Smoking Cessation

描述（由申请人提供）：2009年《家庭吸烟预防和烟草控制法》赋予FDA监管烟草制品生产、分销和营销的权力，以改善公众健康。烟草产品科学咨询委员会向FDA烟草产品中心（CTP）提出的建议是：“从市场上移除薄荷香烟将有利于美国的公众健康。”FDA CTP将对其对薄荷醇的监管方法做出未来的决定。拟议研究的广泛目标是帮助通知FDA CTP的监管机构。为了实现我们的广泛目标，我们将应用最先进的计量经济学方法来研究薄荷醇的使用与戒烟之间的关系。具体目标1是使用准实验计量经济学方法研究薄荷卷烟使用与戒烟之间的关系。我们将分析2003年、2006-07年和2010-11年烟草使用补充当前人口调查（TUS-CPS）周期的数据。TUS-CPS提供了大量具有全国代表性的美国人口样本，包括2003年约N=75,000, 2006-07年N=70,000, 2010-11年N=60,000的当前和以前吸烟者的子样本。我们将对西蒙斯全国消费者调查（NCS）自1995年以来的数据进行平行分析，该调查将提供近8万名当前和过去一年吸烟者的汇总样本。在准实验计量经济学的术语中，我们的主要重点将放在薄荷醇对戒烟的因果治疗效果上。因为这项探索性研究是在R21机制下提出的，我们的目标不是开发一个单一的“最佳”估计。相反，我们的目标是开发一系列可信的初步估计，更重要的是，探索最先进的计量经济学方法在这一新应用中的潜力。具体目标2是对消费者选择薄荷香烟和戒烟的经济学进行实证调查。我们将使用地理编码信息将来自TUS-CPS和NCS的个人层面数据与市场层面的需求影响（包括价格和广告）合并。对于NCS数据，我们还将使用受访者的杂志阅读习惯信息来创建个人层面的潜在杂志香烟广告暴露度量。我们将重点关注社会科学经济研究问题：吸烟者在多大程度上将薄荷香烟和非薄荷香烟视为接近的替代品；以及广告在消费者选择中的作用。具体目标3是进行实证调查，在生命过程中消费者选择薄荷香烟的经济学。我们将使用对2010-2011周期中独特问题的回答来建立生命过程中薄荷醇使用的大致历史。我们将通过分析这些新的生命历程数据来扩展目标1和目标2。目标1-3描述了一项开展探索性和发展性R21研究的计划，该研究旨在解决与NIH FOA PAR-12-266中概述的3个研究重点相关的研究问题：了解烟草制品的多样性；销售;还有经济和政策。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act gives the FDA regulatory authority over the manufacture, distribution and marketing of tobacco products in order to improve public health. The Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee's recommendation to the FDA Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) is that: "Removal of menthol cigarettes from the marketplace would benefit public health in the United States." The FDA CTP will make a future determination about its regulatory approach to menthol. The broad goal of the proposed research is to help inform the FDA CTP's regulatory authority. To accomplish our broad goal we will apply state-of-the-art econometric methods to study relationships between the use of menthol and smoking cessation. Specific Aim 1 is to use quasi-experimental econometric methods to study the relationship between menthol cigarette use and smoking cessation. We will analyze data from the 2003, 2006-07 and 2010-11 cycles of the Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). The TUS-CPS provides large nationally representative samples of the US population, including sub-samples of current and former smokers of about N=75,000 in 2003, N=70,000 in 2006-07, and N=60,000 in 2010-11. We will conduct parallel analysis of data from the Simmons National Consumer Survey (NCS) from the 1995 waves onwards, which will provide a pooled sample of almost 80,000 current and past-year smokers. In the terminology of quasi-experimental econometrics, our main focus will be on the causal treatment effect of menthol use on smoking cessation. Because this exploratory research is proposed under the R21 mechanism, we do not aim to develop a single "best" estimate. Instead, we aim to develop a range of credible preliminary estimates, and more importantly, explore the potential of state-of-the-art econometric methods to this novel application. Specific Aim 2 is to conduct an empirical investigation into the economics of consumer choices about menthol cigarettes and smoking cessation. We will use geocode information to merge the individual-level data from the TUS-CPS and NCS with market-level demand influences including prices and advertising. For the NCS data, we will also use information on respondents' magazine-reading habits to create individual-level measures of potential exposure to cigarette advertisements in magazines. We will focus on social science economic research questions about: the extent to which smokers see menthol and non-menthol cigarettes as close substitutes; and the role of advertising in consumer choices. Specific Aim 3 is to conduct an empirical investigation into the economics of consumer choices about menthol cigarettes over the life course. We will use responses to unique questions in the 2010-2011 cycle to build approximate histories of life course menthol use. We will extend Aims 1 & 2 through the analysis of these novel life-course data. Aims 1-3 describe a plan to conduct exploratory and developmental R21 research that addresses research questions that cut across 3 of the Research Priorities outlined in the NIH FOA PAR-12-266: understanding the diversity of tobacco products; marketing; and economics and policies.