Management of clean-energy transition and associated risks through a multi-dimensional optimization approach

低碳转型是一个复杂而长期的过程，涉及到许多社会、经济、环境、技术和政治因素。复杂性源于能源系统中存在的多个维度，包括多种与能源有关的活动及其相互作用的时空变化，以及对环境和社会经济的影响。低碳转变需要对转型路径的每一个方面进行全面分析。关于能源系统管理的研究很多，然而，以往的研究没有探讨能源系统固有的复杂性，也没有全面考虑多重不确定性的影响和相关风险。这导致难以为制定所需的能源系统管理政策获得可靠的基础。这项研究将开发一个多维优化和风险管理系统(MORMS)，以支持清洁能源转型的战略决策。MORMS是第一个在总体框架内集成系统优化、风险管理和决策支持系统开发的系统。这就需要制定一套创新的方法来研究以下问题：能源系统的特性、供需分析、综合优化、不确定性分析、脆弱性/风险评估、政策分析和气候变化适应规划。MORMS将适用于加拿大西部的案例。对于每个案例研究，将对不确定的影响因素及其相互作用进行透彻的分析，然后进行进一步的模拟研究，以帮助确定所需的清洁能源过渡战略。这项研究的结果将有助于政府和行业制定加拿大有效的能源和环境管理政策，从而为一些社区带来巨大的好处。

Low-carbon transition is a complex and long-term process and involves many social, economic, environmental, technical and political factors. Complexities arise from multi-dimensionalities that exist in energy systems, including spatial and temporal variations of multiple energy-related activities and their interactions, as well as environmental and socio-economic implications. A low-carbon shift requires a complete analysis for every aspect of the transition pathways. There were many studies on energy systems management, however, past studies did not explore the inherent complexities of energy systems nor did they comprehensively consider the effects of multiple uncertainties and the associated risks. This led to difficulties in acquiring sound bases for formulating desired policies for energy systems management. This research will develop a multi-dimensional optimization and risk management system (MORMS) for supporting strategic decisions in the clean-energy transition. MORMS is the first system to integrate system optimization, risk management, and decision support system development within a general framework. This entails the development of a set of innovative methodologies for studying the following issues: characterization of energy systems, supply-demand analysis, integrated optimization, uncertainty analysis, vulnerability/risk assessment, policy analysis, and climate change adaptation planning. MORMS will be applied to cases of western Canada. For each case study, a thorough analysis of uncertain impact factors and their interactions will be undertaken, followed by further modeling studies to help identify desired clean-energy transition strategies. Results of this research will help governments and industries to formulate Canadian effective policies for energy and environmental management, and thus bring tremendous benefits to a number of communities.****