Spatially explicit population viability analysis of herbivore populations living in fission-fusion societies

种群生存能力分析(PVA)是一种用于预测种群未来规模和灭绝风险的建模工具，通常为管理和保护行动提供信息。尽管群体规模和运动策略会对动物的生存和繁殖产生很大的影响，但PVA通常不会整合社会生态学和运动生态学的原理。遗漏可能会降低PVA的准确性，特别是对于生活在聚变-裂变社会中的物种。在这样的社会中，群体规模的不断变化直接影响群体成员的行动、他们的觅食行为以及他们面临的死亡风险。我们的目标是确定导致群居食草动物生命率空间差异的关键因素，并利用这些信息为生活在裂变聚变社会中的动物开发一个空间上明确的PVA框架。*我们将研究阿尔伯特王子国家公园及其周围自由活动的平原野牛。这种野牛种群面临着狼的捕食，以及在公园外的狩猎。我们将进行实地研究，以确定特定年龄的死亡率的时空模式，并确定导致这些模式的环境因素。实地工作将涉及无线电遥测的广泛使用。传统的GPS项圈将描述野牛和狼的空间动态，而近距离项圈将提供有项圈的野牛和狼之间的每一次互动的详细描述。一些野牛将配备配备有摄像机的GPS项圈。视频将提供广泛的信息，如食物选择，休息和锻造比赛的持续时间，以及小牛死亡率。同时，我们将进行实地调查，以确定非颈圈野牛的群体规模、植被质量和活动预算。我们还将收集生物样本进行荷尔蒙和DNA分析。总体而言，现场数据将用于1)为生活在零星环境中的聚变-裂变社会中的个体建立运动模型，2)将食物选择、生理状态、活动的同步性、聚变-裂变群体动态和捕食风险联系起来，3)确定生理应激的决定因素，及其对动物分布的影响，以及4)确定空间使用模式与招募和成年死亡率之间的联系。这些信息将成为开发空间显式PVA的基础。*拟议的研究将提供为数不多的空间显式、机械式PVA之一。此外，平原野牛在加拿大受到威胁，鉴于其已经面临的捕食压力，我们的PVA将提供有关该种群能够承受的收获压力的重要信息。这项研究将有助于阐明行为、人口学和分布之间的生态联系，同时增加我们对受威胁种群的理解。

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a modelling tool used to predict the future size and extinction risk of populations, and commonly informs management and conservation actions. Although group size and movement tactics can have a strong impact on animal survival and reproduction, PVAs generally do not integrate principles of socioecology and movement ecology. The omission could reduce the accuracy of PVAs, especially for species living in fusion-fission societies. In such societies, the constant changes in group size directly influence the movement of group members, their foraging behaviour, and the mortality risk they face. Our objectives are to identify the key factors causing spatial variation in vital rates of gregarious herbivores, and use this information to develop a spatially explicit PVA framework for animals living in fission-fusion societies.****We will study free-ranging plains bison in and around Prince Albert National Park. This bison population faces wolf predation, as well as hunting outside of the park. We will conduct field studies to characterize the spatio-temporal patterns in age-specific vital rates, and identify the environmental factors responsible for those patterns. Field work will involve the extensive use of radio-telemetry. Traditional GPS collars will characterize the spatial dynamics of bison and wolves, whereas proximity collars will provide a detailed account of each interaction between collared bison and wolves. A number of bison will be fit with GPS-collars equipped with a video camera. The footage will provide a broad range of information such as food choice, duration of resting and forging bouts, and calf mortality. Concurrently, we will conduct field surveys to determine group size, vegetation quality, and the activity budget of non-collared bison. We will also collect biological samples for hormonal and DNA analysis. Overall, the field data will be used to 1) develop movement models for individuals living in fusion-fission societies established in patchy environments, 2) link food choice, physiological state, synchrony of activities, fusion-fission group dynamics, and predation risk, 3) identify the determinants of physiological stress, and their impact on animal distribution, and 4) determine the link between space use patterns and recruitment and adult mortality. This information will then become the basis for the development of a spatially explicit PVA.****The proposed research will provide one of the few spatially explicit, mechanistic PVA. Moreover, plains bison are threatened in Canada, and our PVA will provide essential information about the harvest pressure that the population can sustain, given the predation pressure it already faces. The research will contribute to elucidating the ecological links among behaviour, demography, and distribution, while increasing our understanding of a threatened population.***