High resolution modelling of weather over the Grand Banks

伍德环境和基础设施解决方案为纽芬兰近海的石油和天然气行业提供详细的天气预报。挑战包括狂风、波涛汹涌的海面和大雾。这些都影响了这些设施的安全运行，以及设备和人员的运输。我们的大部分活动将集中在评估和改进WRF(NCAR开发的天气研究和预报模型)在大浅滩地区天气预报中的应用。模式的输出可以为波浪模式(WW3)提供输入，并将探索与海洋和波浪模式的耦合。其目标是改进对包括大风和雾以及海浪条件在内的不利天气的预报，以便海上设施及其周围的作业能够安全和高效地进行。在阻止直升机着陆的近海地点，雾的潜在影响是一个具体问题，在这些问题上，更好的预报可以避免“回旋镖飞行”。重要的因素将涉及确定当模型运行时要同化哪些数据。这可能包括来自GOES-E和其他卫星的信息，以及在近海设施或该地区的船只上进行的现场测量。 大银行是世界上最多雾的地方之一，夏季月份有50%的时间会有雾。水蒸气凝结成水滴并在地球大气边界层中产生雾或低云，涉及热量和水蒸气的湍流混合、云的微物理过程和热的辐射传输之间的复杂平衡。提高我们对导致这些海洋雾事件的发生、强度、深度和持续性的条件的量化理解是这项研究的次要重点。与这些活动密切相关的是，我们将寻求在WRF和其他天气预报模式中改进雾处理的方法，在单柱和业务3-D模式中应用WRF模式，并评估该地区对雾、大风和使用WW3的海况的性能。

Wood Environment and Infrastructure Solutions provide detailed weather forecasts for oil & gas industry operations offshore from Newfoundland. Among the challenges are high winds, rough seas and fog. These impact the safe operation of these facilities, and the transportation of equipment and personnel. Most of our activity will center on evaluation and improving the application of WRF (the Weather Research and Forecasting model developed at NCAR) to weather forecasting in the Grand Banks area. Output from the model can provide input to a wave model (WW3) and couplings with ocean and wave models will be explored. The goal is to improve the forecasts of adverse weather, including high winds and fog, plus wave conditions so that operations on and around offshore installations can be conducted safely and efficiently. The potential impacts of fog at offshore sites preventing helicopter landings is a specific issue where better forecasting can avoid "boomerang flights". Important factors will involve determining which data to assimilate when the models are run operationally. This may include information from GOES-E and other satellites as well as in-situ measurements made on the offshore facilities or from ships in the area. The Grand Banks is among the foggiest places in the world with fog occurring up to 50% of the time in the summer months. The condensation of water vapour into droplets and the creation of fog or low cloud in the Earth's atmospheric boundary layer involves a complex balance between turbulent mixing of heat and water vapour, cloud micro-physical processes and radiative transfers of heat. Improving our quantitative understanding of the conditions leading to the occurrence, intensity, depth and persistence of these marine fog events is a secondary focus of the study. Coupled closely with these activities we will be seeking ways to refine the treatment of fog in WRF and other weather forecast models, applying the WRF model, in both Single Column and operational 3-D modes and evaluating the performance in this region, for fog, high winds and, using WW3, for sea state.