Developing a Wastewater Surveillance System and Predictive Model for the Estimation of the Scale of Covid-19 Infection

近几个月来，有报告显示，感染了SARS-CoV-2病毒（导致COVID-19的病原体）的人会通过粪便排出病毒。对污水和废水进行检测有可能成为在社区内报告临床病例之前早期发现COVID-19的另一种工具。该项目与温尼伯市合作，旨在开发一个废水监测系统，并通过每两周从温尼伯的北端、西端和南端污水处理厂收集样本，评估潜在的健康风险。废水流行病学方法可以在评估社区中COVID-19感染的真实丰度和早期发现潜在疫情方面发挥关键作用。此次合作的第一个目标是揭示COVID-19的真正负担，并利用这些信息帮助管理和/或预防潜在的疫情。该项目将开发一种新的预测模型，可用于分析污水并确定城市中的COVID-19病例数。拟议的废水监测技术也将适合用作早期预警系统，以发现该病毒或任何未来病毒在城市人口中的传播。第二个目标是揭示该病毒在污水处理厂（STPs）和处理过的污水中的持久性，并通过分析STPs的污水、处理过的污水、污泥饼和气溶胶样本，部分了解污水处理工人的潜在健康风险。这对温尼伯市排污工人的健康很重要。总而言之，本研究旨在建立预测模型、废水监测方法、SARS-CoV-2病毒环境持久性数据，并为职业安全卫生法规提供依据，以减轻COVID-19引起的健康风险。

In recent months, reports have emerged indicating that people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the pathogenic agent responsible for COVID-19) shed the virus in their faeces. Testing of sewage and wastewater has the potential to serve as another tool for early detection of COVID-19 even before clinical cases are reported within a community. In partnership with the City of Winnipeg this project aims to develop a wastewater surveillance system and assess potential health risks by collecting samples biweekly from Winnipeg's North End, West End and South End Sewage Treatment Plants. A wastewater epidemiology approach can play a crucial role to assess the true abundance of COVID-19 infections in communities and to early detect a potential outbreak. The first goal of this collaboration is to reveal the real burden of COVID-19 and use this information to help manage and/or prevent potential outbreaks. This project will develop a novel predictive model that can be used to analyze sewage and determine the number of COVID-19 cases in the city. The proposed wastewater surveillance technique will also be suitable for use as an early warning system to uncover the circulation of this or any future virus in municipal populations. The second goal will be to reveal the persistence of the virus in sewage treatment plants (STPs) and treated sewage, and to partially understand potential health risks to sewage workers by analyzing sewage, treated sewage, sludge cake and aerosol samples from STPs. This is important to the health of the sewage worker at the City of Winnipeg. To summarize, the study aims to produce a predictive model, a wastewater surveillance method, data on environmental persistence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and to form a basis for occupational safety and health regulations for mitigating health risks caused by COVID-19.