Dynamic and Thermodynamic Forcing of Ice Thickness Variations

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ABSTRACT OPP-9729575 WALSH, JOHN UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS The project will utilize ice thickness measurements taken from submarines from 1977 - 1992 in the vicinity of the North Pole to analyze whether variations in ice dynamics or thermodynamics account for the observed changes in ice thickness that have occurred. The investigator will tune the dynamic and thermodynamic models to reduce the difference produced by the models from the observed thickness changes in the submarine data. The analysis of the actual vs. predicted ice thickness will allow examination of whether dynamic or thermodynamic parameters in the models have a greater influence on the changes from observed thickness. The results are critical to understanding the driving force behind changes in ice thickness. If the mechanism most responsible is thermodynamics, then the potential for global climate change to have an effect on ice thickness may be predicted with the thermodynamic models using temperature changes for the Arctic predicted from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.