Ecological Forecasting: An Emerging Imperative Workshop to be held at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Spring 2000

0074705克拉克生态预测是预测生态系统、生态系统服务和自然资本的状态的过程，具有完全指定的不确定性，取决于气候、土地使用、人口、技术和经济活动的明确情景。预测的空间范围从流域到区域到大陆到地球仪。预测的时间范围通常为10至50年。预测和预测涉及根据过去的活动和模型预测未来的生态系统状态，这些模型结合了我们对关系的理解。通过获得对生态系统状态、生态系统服务和自然资本的可靠预测，可以改进规划和决策。新出现的计算能力加上大规模的生态系统研究将很快使人们有可能预测、验证和测试环境变化的许多方面。将于2000年5月在国家生态分析和综合中心举办一次讲习班，以制定生态预测的科学议程。来自经济学家、气候学家、人口学家和管理人员的演讲将讨论预测中涉及的交叉问题。一系列案例研究报告将涉及生态学家和相关学科的科学家，以评估生态科学是否准备好进行预测。随后的讨论将集中在生态预测，基础研究需求，量化不确定性/决策理论，并向用户传达预测的社会和物理驱动因素。讲习班将制作一份白色文件、一篇概述文章和一本书。

0074705ClarkEcological forecasting is the process of predicting the state of ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural capital, with fully specified uncertainties, contingent on explicit scenarios for climate, land use, human population, technologies and economic activity. The spatial extents of forecasts range form watersheds to regions to continents to the globe. The time horizons of the forecasts are typically 10 to 50 years. Projection and forecasting involve predicting future ecosystem states based on past activity and models that incorporate our understanding of relationships. Planning and decision making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Emerging computing capacities together with broad-scale ecosystem studies will soon make it possible to predict, validate and test many aspects of environmental change. A workshop will be held in May 2000 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis to develop a science agenda for Ecological Forecasting. Presentations from economists, climatologists, demographers, and managers will address cross-cutting issues involved in making forecasts. A series of case study presentations will involve both ecologists and scientists form related disciplines to assess the readiness of ecological science to make forecasts. Subsequent discussions will focus on social and physical drivers of ecological forecasts, basic research needs, quantifying uncertainty/decision theory, and communicating forecasts to the users. The workshop will produce a white paper, an overview article and a book.