SGER: Reconnaissance Survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan Earthquake and Tsunami

该奖项用于2006年7月17日爪哇中部地震和海啸的勘察调查。据最新估计，海啸造成的死亡人数接近700人。这几乎是一个令人费解的数字，因为太平洋海啸预警中心发布了警报，而警报是在雅加达收到的。此外，1994年在爪哇东南部也发生了类似的地震，海啸造成的死亡人数约为200人(Synolakis等人，1994年)。最初的媒体报道和当地科学家的一些估计表明，这次地震的高度超过5米。通过现场观测分析这一事件非常重要，原因如下：1)来自现场的早期报告表明，冲击区似乎高度局部化，一些科学家已经推测，海上地震可能引发了海上滑坡。需要对淹没高度的分布进行量化，例如Okal和Synolakis(2004年)，以帮助澄清是否需要进行海底滑坡，以及是否迫切需要进一步开展近海海洋地质工作。2)在国际海啸信息中心名单服务器上张贴了至少7幅带有残缺预测的动画。收集高质量的淹没测量将建立一个高质量的数据集，然后使社区能够推断不同模型的预测能力，并评估其在洪水制图和业务预报中的潜在用途。这是有史以来第一次公开发布和分享如此多的初步调查前预测。模型验证是对未来海啸影响的可信预测的重要一步。拟议的工作具有重大的更广泛的影响：1)需要了解2006年海啸的不相称死亡人数(与母方地震的规模相比)，特别是考虑到最初报告的淹没距离相当小，以及临近的1994年“类似”事件的影响较小。2)需要确定应急管理的缺陷--如果它们确实如时间(2006年7月20日)所说的那样发生。正如所说的那样，中央政府收到了PTWC的警告，但警告没有传播给地方当局，因为警告只提到了地震，没有海啸的信息。需要更多关于应急准备水平的信息，特别是在这一地区，它是爪哇最重要的旅游目的地之一。这些信息将有助于识别美国和世界各地应急计划中可能存在的缺陷。

This award funds a reconnaissance survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan earthquake and tsunami. The most recent estimate of the human toll from the tsunami is approaching 700. This is a nearly incomprehensible number, given that there was a warning issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and the warning was received in Jakarta. Also, a similar earthquake struck in 1994 in Southeast Java, with a death toll from the tsunami of about 200 (Synolakis et al, 1994). Initial media reports and some estimates from local scientists relate runup heights in excess of 5m.It is important to analyze this event through field observations, for the following reasons:1) Early reports from the field suggest that the impact zone seems to be highly localized, and some scientists have already speculated that the offshore earthquake may have triggered an offshore landslide. The distribution of inundation heights needs to be quantified a la Okal and Synolakis (2004) to help clarify whether a submarine landslide needs to be invoked and whether further offshore marine geology work is urgently needed.2) At least seven animations with runup projections have been posted on the InternationalTsunami Information Center list-server. Collecting high quality inundation measurements will build a high quality data set that will then allow the community to infer the predictive capability of different models and evaluate their potential uses for inundation mapping and operational forecasts. This is the first time ever that so many initial pre-survey predictions have been publicly posted and shared. Model validation is an important step to credible predictions of the impact of future tsunamis.The proposed work has significant broader impacts:1) The incommensurate death toll of the 2006 tsunami (compared to the size of the parentearthquake) needs to be understood, particularly in view of the fairly small initially reported inundation distances, and the lesser impact of the "similar" 1994 event which struck close by.2) The shortcoming of emergency management - if indeed they occurred as suggested by TIME (July 20, 2006) - need to be identified. As suggested, the central government had received the PTWC warning, but the warning was not disseminated to local authorities because the warning mentioned the earthquake only and had no tsunami information. More information is needed on the level of emergency preparedness, particularly in this area which is one of the top tourist destinations in Java. Such information will help identify possible deficiencies in emergency plans in the US and around the world.