The effects of family policy on labor supply and fertility decisions: Evidence from a dynamic structural micro-economic model with task-specific human capital, estimated using microdata for France and Germany

家庭政策对劳动力供给和生育决策的影响：来自具有特定任务人力资本的动态结构微观经济模型的证据，使用法国和德国的微观数据进行估计

• 批准号: 264753967
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Bureau dÉconomie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/264753967?language=en
• 关键词: effects; family; policy; labor; supply

Although France and Germany are similar in many socio-economic dimensions, their total fertility rates are at the opposite extremes of the spectrum found in the OECD. German family policy has sought to increase the low rate for years with little success. We believe that much can be learned from a systematic comparison that is guided by economic theory, features detailed modeling of family policy and labor market environments alike, and adequately controls for heterogeneity in preferences.In the proposed project, we develop an estimable life cycle model with endogenous fertility, career, and labor supply decisions. The model is fully forward-looking, so women choose their careers based on their desired fertility level and the costs of career breaks. These costs are shaped by policy through the prices of childcare, maternity leave benefits, and birth-related job protection policies. They are also influenced by the choice of career itself: Foregone returns to experience and human capital depreciation vary with the task baskets associated with different types of jobs. Our model includes the decision to obtain a university degree; in order to get a meaningful distinction between different career paths we develop a task based approach. Heterogeneous preferences for education, work and fertility ensure that we do not falsely attribute differences in outcomes to variation in the institutional setting. We perform extensive model checks, including validation on holdout samples. Estimating comparable versions of the model for Germany and France allows us to decompose differences in outcomes into differences in policy, the labor market environment, and preferences. We are also able to investigate possible interaction effects between these three sets of explanatory factors. We also use the model to study specific family policy measures in greater detail. Our main application will be the 2007 reform of parental leave benefits in Germany. Unlike the existing quasi-experimental studies, the structural model will allow us to quantify the separate effects of the different components of the reform, to isolate the reform effects from concomitant changes such as the expansion of childcare, and to predict the long-run fertility effects of the reform, distinguishing changes in completed fertility from pure timing effects. We will also use the model to simulate changes to the current system of parental leave regulations and to approximate the efficient frontier of fertility and female labor force participation, while leaving total fiscal cost constant at the present level.

尽管法国和德国在许多社会经济方面相似，但它们的总生育率却处于经合组织的相反极端。德国家庭政策多年来一直试图提高低利率，但收效甚微。我们相信，可以从以经济理论为指导的系统比较中学到很多东西，该比较以家庭政策和劳动力市场环境的详细建模为特色，并充分控制偏好的异质性。在拟议的项目中，我们开发了一个包含内生生育率、职业和劳动力供应决策的可估计生命周期模型。该模型完全具有前瞻性，因此女性根据自己想要的生育水平和职业中断的成本来选择职业。这些成本是由儿童保育价格、产假福利和与生育相关的就业保护政策等政策决定的。它们还受到职业选择本身的影响：放弃的经验回报和人力资本折旧因与不同类型工作相关的任务篮而异。我们的模型包括获得大学学位的决定；为了对不同的职业道路进行有意义的区分，我们开发了一种基于任务的方法。对教育、工作和生育的不同偏好确保我们不会错误地将结果的差异归因于制度环境的差异。我们进行广泛的模型检查，包括对保留样本的验证。估计德国和法国模型的可比版本使我们能够将结果的差异分解为政策、劳动力市场环境和偏好的差​​异。我们还能够研究这三组解释因素之间可能的相互作用影响。我们还使用该模型更详细地研究具体的家庭政策措施。我们的主要应用是 2007 年德国育儿假福利改革。与现有的准实验研究不同，结构模型将使我们能够量化改革不同组成部分的单独影响，将改革影响与扩大儿童保育等伴随变化分开，并预测改革对生育率的长期影响，将完成生育率的变化与纯粹的时间效应区分开来。我们还将使用该模型来模拟现行育儿假法规制度的变化，并估算生育率和女性劳动力参与率的有效边界，同时使总财政成本保持在当前水平不变。