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An Analysis of Medium-and-Long Term Developments of the Russian Economy

俄罗斯经济中长期发展分析

基本信息

批准号：
17203019
负责人：
NISHIMURA Yoshiaki
金额：
$ 26.62万
依托单位：
Hitotsubashi University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17203019/
关键词：
Russian economy .BRICs Transition to market economy financial panic FDI the Far East oil the Dutch disease BRICS 国際研究者交流ロシア

项目摘要

This research project aims to reveal the existing conditions of the Russian economy when it has passed more than ten years since the commencement of transition to a market economy in the Russian Federation. We made an effort to answer the following two questions; (1) whether a market economy has already established itself in Russia or not, (2) whether recent high growth rates of the Russian economy will be sustainable in the future or not. For this purpose, we focused mainly upon four research topics, namely, on trends of the development of the Russian economy since 1992, on progress of economic reforms, on macroeconomic developments, and on movements of the corporate and microeconomic system.Our conclusion is as follows. First, the Russian economy is judged to be a market economy, on the ground that it enjoys sustainable high growth rates on the basis of market institutions transplanted from outside since 1992. Secondly, this evaluation is supported by the microeconomic fact that corporate governance has formed extensively now among Russian enterprises. Thirdly, the formation of financial markets lags behind, which is one of the most serious defects of the Russian economy. Fourthly the Russian economy has a challenge of a decline in population in the long run, but it has a vast possibility of economic developments on the basis of technical catch-up through importation of ordinary technology from the developed countries.The above-mentioned outcomes from the collaboration of the project members have been published in several refereed international journals and academic books.

这一研究项目旨在揭示俄罗斯联邦开始向市场经济转型十多年来俄罗斯经济的现状。我们努力回答了以下两个问题：(1)市场经济是否已经在俄罗斯站稳脚跟；(2)俄罗斯经济最近的高增长速度未来是否可持续。为此，我们主要围绕1992年以来俄罗斯经济发展趋势、经济改革进展、宏观经济发展以及企业和微观经济体系的动向等四个方面进行了研究。首先，俄罗斯经济被判断为市场经济，理由是它在1992年以来从外部移植的市场制度的基础上享有可持续的高增长率。其次，这一评价得到了微观经济事实的支持，即公司治理目前已在俄罗斯企业中广泛形成。第三，金融市场形成滞后，这是俄罗斯经济最严重的缺陷之一。第四，从长远来看，俄罗斯经济面临着人口减少的挑战，但它通过从发达国家引进普通技术，在技术追赶的基础上发展经济的可能性很大。上述项目成员合作的成果已发表在几个被引用的国际期刊和学术书籍上。