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Transition to market economies and capital transfer in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

前苏联和东欧市场经济转型与资本转移

基本信息

批准号：
11630038
负责人：
NISHIMURA Yoshiaki
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
Hitotsubashi University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11630038/
关键词：
Foreign Direct Investment FDI The Hungarian Economy The Russian Economy Transition to a Market Economy Greenfield Investment Portfolio Investment Privatization ブルガリア経済経済特別区外資導入ロシア東欧旧ソ連短期資本

项目摘要

In this research project conducted for three years, firstly I collected and inspected statistical materials on capital inflow published in transitional countries and those revealed by the international financial institutions. And consultations with foreign experts were also useful. Through this investigation it turned out fruitful that Hungary should be examined in terms of FDI and Russia from the viewpoint of portfolio investment. Therefore my detailed analyzes were focused on the two countries. My findings were published in three papers already. And moreover they were full of suggestion for the intergovernmental project of technical cooperation with the Bulgarian Ministry of Economy to support formation of key industrial policies (I am the head of the project on the Japanese side). For eventually it has become quite clear that not only portfolio investments but also foreign direct investments contain negative effects as well as positive ones. I could point out through analyzes of FDI influences over balance of payments, foreign trade and economic structure in Hungary that a deepest split of her economy or a serious dual economy has emerged which consists of a sector with foreign capital participation and a sector of Hungarian indigenous capital. This fact means the invitation of FDI is never a panacea for transition to a market economy but that cautiously selective induction of FDI is indispensable from the viewpoint of independency of a national economy. As regards Russia I emphasized that her easy liberalization policy of the economy is extremely dangerous for the Russian economy which has been suffering from the so-called "Dutch disease".

在为期三年的研究中，首先收集和考察了转型期国家公布的资本流入统计资料和国际金融机构公布的资本流入统计资料。与外国专家的磋商也是有益的。通过这次调查，结果表明，匈牙利应该从外国直接投资和俄罗斯的角度来审查证券投资。因此，我的详细分析集中在这两个国家。我的研究结果已经发表在三篇论文中。此外，他们对与保加利亚经济部的政府间技术合作项目提出了很多建议，以支持关键产业政策的形成（我是日方项目负责人）。因为最终已经相当清楚的是，不仅证券投资，而且外国直接投资也有消极影响和积极影响。通过分析FDI对匈牙利国际收支、对外贸易和经济结构的影响，可以看出，匈牙利经济已经出现了最深的分裂，或者说是由外资参与部门和匈牙利本土资本部门组成的严重的二元经济。这一事实意味着，吸引外国直接投资绝不是向市场经济过渡的灵丹妙药，但从国家经济独立性的角度来看，谨慎选择地吸引外国直接投资是必不可少的。至于俄罗斯，我强调，她的经济自由化政策对俄罗斯经济来说是极其危险的，因为俄罗斯经济一直患有所谓的“荷兰病”。