New Developments of Economic Reforms in the soviet Union and East-European Countries

我集中总结了东欧国家一年前认真启动的向市场经济转型的经验，分析了苏联解体的情况，同时注意到研究项目将在本财年结束；至于东欧国家，我分析了国际货币基金组织以经济自由主义为基础的激进市场化政策对其产业造成严重打击的实际情况。我强调，必须重新考虑如何将前社会主义经济体纳入布雷顿森林体系，迫切需要为所谓的休克疗法制定替代政策。我也摸索过这些政策。我指出了一个危险，那就是不考虑各国的具体情况而实行激进的经济自由主义，可能会导致严重的经济和社会冲突。关于苏联，我在1991年7月通过对1990年上半年发表的市场化方案的详细分析指出，自1990年秋季以来，政府在走向市场经济的道路上陷入了僵局。我断言，试图突破这种局面导致了8月政变，其实质是各加盟共和国获得独立和苏联解体。我提出将“前社会主义经济体市场化的初始条件”作为分析转向市场经济的问题的框架，引起了研究人员和有关官员的注意。

I have concentrated myself on summarizing experiences of transition to market economies initiated earnestly one year ago in the East-European countries, and analyzing the collapse of the Soviet Union, while paying attention to the fact that the research project will come to an end in this fiscal year.As for the East-European countries, I have analyzed the actual situation that the radical marketization policies advised by IMF on the basis of economic liberalism has been dealing a serious blow to their industries. I emphasized that it must be reconsidered how to involve the former socialist economies into the Breton Woods system, and that it is urgently necessary to work out alternative policies for the so-called shock therapy. I have also groped for those policies. I pointed out a danger that the application of the radical economic liberalism without consideration of concrete conditions in the countries may bring about serious economic and social conflicts.As concerns the Soviet Union, I noted in July 1991, by the detailed analysis of marketization programs published in the first half of 1990, that the government had come to a deadlock on its way to a market economy since the autumn of 1990. And I asserted that trying to break through the situation led to the August coup, whose essence consists in the republics' achievement of independence and a collapse of the soviet Union.I proposed "initial conditions of marketization in the former socialist economies" as a framework of analyzing the problems of moves to market economies, which attracted attention of researchers and officials concerned.