New Developments of Economic Reforms in the soviet Union and East-European Countries

我集中精力总结了一年前东欧国家认真开始的市场经济转型的经验，分析了苏联的解体，同时注意到本财政年度的研究项目即将结束。对于东欧国家，我分析了IMF在经济自由主义基础上提出的激进的市场化政策对其产业造成严重打击的实际情况。我强调说，必须重新考虑如何将前社会主义国家纳入布雷顿森林体系，并迫切需要制定替代所谓休克疗法的政策。我也摸索过这些政策。我指出了一种危险，即在不考虑各国具体情况的情况下实施激进的经济自由主义可能会带来严重的经济和社会冲突。关于苏联，我在1991年7月通过对1990年上半年公布的市场化计划的详细分析指出，自1990年秋季以来，苏联政府在走向市场经济的道路上陷入了僵局。我断言，试图突破这种局面导致了8月政变，其实质是各共和国实现独立和苏联解体。我提出“前社会主义经济市场化的初始条件”作为分析市场经济转型问题的框架，引起了有关研究者和官员的注意。

I have concentrated myself on summarizing experiences of transition to market economies initiated earnestly one year ago in the East-European countries, and analyzing the collapse of the Soviet Union, while paying attention to the fact that the research project will come to an end in this fiscal year.As for the East-European countries, I have analyzed the actual situation that the radical marketization policies advised by IMF on the basis of economic liberalism has been dealing a serious blow to their industries. I emphasized that it must be reconsidered how to involve the former socialist economies into the Breton Woods system, and that it is urgently necessary to work out alternative policies for the so-called shock therapy. I have also groped for those policies. I pointed out a danger that the application of the radical economic liberalism without consideration of concrete conditions in the countries may bring about serious economic and social conflicts.As concerns the Soviet Union, I noted in July 1991, by the detailed analysis of marketization programs published in the first half of 1990, that the government had come to a deadlock on its way to a market economy since the autumn of 1990. And I asserted that trying to break through the situation led to the August coup, whose essence consists in the republics' achievement of independence and a collapse of the soviet Union.I proposed "initial conditions of marketization in the former socialist economies" as a framework of analyzing the problems of moves to market economies, which attracted attention of researchers and officials concerned.