Evaluation of Economic Transition Policies and International Assistance for Cental Asian Transition Countries : the Case of Mongolia

本研究的目的是从以下方面评价蒙古的经济转型政策和对蒙古的援助政策：(A)这些政策的结果是蒙古经济的宏观经济表现，以及(B)这些政策的预期目标和目的是否实现以及达到了什么程度。蒙古从1990年开始从计划经济向市场经济转型。1990年和随后几年的政府政策和援助政策的主要目标是成功地实现经济和政治过渡。政府采取了“大爆炸”政策，这是一项旨在迅速和全面实现过渡的政策。如果我们仅从经济表现来评估这一政策的效果，它是成功的。如果我们以计划实现的政策目标来衡量成功，那么业绩是成功的一半，失败的一半。它在经济目标方面取得了成功，成为…在蒙古国建立市场经济的基本制度。从“大爆炸”的角度来看，这是一个失败。也就是说，过渡花了10年时间来实现经济目标和建立必要的机构，这比大爆炸政策设想的时间要长得多。1990年至2000年蒙古国经济运行总体良好，宏观经济基本恢复到1989年GDP的2000年实际水平。2000年后，政府的主要目标从实现转型转变为实现经济增长和减贫。如果我们根据截至2004年的数据评估这两个目标的业绩，经济增长目标已经成功实现，这主要归功于出口商品的国际价格居高不下，以及相对较大和稳定的官方发展援助资金流入。截至2004年，减贫目标尚未实现，这将是蒙古政府未来几年面临的重大挑战。在援助政策方面，许多捐助者制定了许多政策。货币基金组织的政策及其执行似乎有助于蒙古宏观经济管理的良好表现。世界银行的贡献似乎是在部门发展方面。亚洲开发银行政策的结果似乎好坏参半。较少

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic transition policies of Mongolia and the assistance policies to Mongolia in terms of (a)macroeconomic performance of Mongolian economy as the results of these policies, and (b)whether or not the intended goals and objectives of these policies were achieved and to what extent.The transition of Mongolia from the command economy to a market economy started in 1990. The primary goal of the government policies and assistance policies in 1990 and several subsequent years was to achieve the economic and political transition successfully. The government took the "big-bang" policy, which is the policy intending to achieve the transition swiftly and in its entirety. If we assess the results of this policy only in terms of economic performance, it was a success. If we measure the success in terms of policy goals having been intended to achieve, the performance was a half success and a half failure. It succeeded in terms of economic objectives a … More nd of establishing basic institutions for the market economy in Mongolia. It was a failure in terms of "big bang." That is, the transition took 10 year to achieve the economic goals and to establish necessary institutions, which is much longer than the big-bang policy envisaged. And, even now there are yet many components that were not achieved as planned.The overall economic performance of Mongolia from 1990 through 2000 was good in general, and its macroeconomy almost recovered the level of 1989 GDP in real term in 2000. After 2000, the principal objectives of the government have changed from achieving the transition to achieving economic growth and poverty reduction. If we assess the performance regarding the two objectives based on data up to 2004, the economic growth objective has been achieved successfully mainly thanks to high international prices to export commodities and relatively large and steady inflow of ODA funds. The poverty reduction objective is not yet achieved as of 2004 and this will be a major challenge for the Mongolian government for years to come.With respect to assistance policies, there have been many policies by many donors. IMF' policies and their implementation seem to have contributed to the good performance of the macroeconomic management of Mongolia. Contributions of the World Bank seem to be in sectoral development. Results of the Asian Development Bank policies seem to be mixed. Less