Study into the Dynamism and Fluctuational Factors of Foreign Exchange Rates

外汇汇率动态及波动因素研究

• 批准号: 15530225
• 负责人: YOSHIDA Ken-ichi
• 金额: $ 1.02万
• 依托单位: Kogakuin University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2003 至 2005
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15530225/
• 关键词: Plaza Accord; nominal fluctuations of foreign exchanges; hot momey; inflation; flexible (exchange) rate system; fixed (exchnage) rate system; international migration of capital; real fluctuations of foreign exchanges; レーガノミクス; 国際短期資本; 過剰ドル; 名目的

There is no economic theory which explained "systematically" the whole change of a Japan-U.S. exchange rate in the 1980s, i.e., the dollar rise of the first half and the rapid dollar fall of the second half. Although there is the empirical research of "having restored to the exchange rate to the level of the start of the 80s in the end of the 80s" by calculation of an "effective real exchange rate", "why it became such" is not explained.The purpose of this research was explaining conformably the Japan-U.S. exchange rate change of the 1980s, after verifying the long-term dynamic state of foreign exchange rate change based on two factors of exchange rate change, i.e., the "real" factor of change of international balance of payments and the "nominal" factor of change of price levels. For these three years, while performing collection of reference, listening comprehension by the persons concerned, etc., based on analysis of data etc., I explored the true state and essence of an exchange ra … More te and system, and acquired original knowledge from both sides of history and theory. The center of a result is the following.Under the inflation which continues from the second half of the 1970s, naturally, the exchange rates for the dollar of the 80s should have fallen extensively to other currency. However, it went up by the inflow of foreign capital (large black figures of a capital balance) by dear money policy, and an unusual strong dollar was made to appear. Although it started to fall by the coordinated cut of each country based on the Plaza Accord, unexpectedly, the adverse current of foreign capital (capital flight) was not produced. The outflow of the foreign capital (reduction of the black figures or deficitizing of a capital balance) by release of a high interest rate cannot explain the weak dollar of the second half of the 80s. In fact, the problem is not at a U.S. foreign situation and suited internal conditions. While almost all domestic commodities raised a price under the basis of an inflation, only foreign currency was an exceptional low end product. A "strong dollar" means a "weak other currency rate". The dollar nailed at the "monetary market" by dear money policy flowed into the "exchange market" as a low end product market like raging billows by release. Buying foreign currency with a dollar raises the exchange rate as a price of foreign currency. The sharp fall of the dollar was purely generated according to the internal factor.Although a policy can distort a law, it is not canceled. A law is transferred to somewhere else with the different form. A policy is obliged to an alteration and restoration after all with objective economic conditions. Less

对于上世纪80年代日美汇率的整个变化，即上半场美元的升值和下半场美元的快速下跌，没有一个经济学理论可以“系统地”解释。虽然有通过计算“有效实际汇率”来“使汇率恢复到80年代初的水平”的实证研究，但没有解释“为什么会这样”。本研究的目的是在基于国际收支变化的“实际”因素和物价水平变化的“名义”因素验证汇率变化的长期动态之后，对20世纪80年代的日美汇率变化进行符合的解释。在这三年里，我在收集参考资料、当事人听力理解等方面，在分析数据的基础上，探索了…交流的真实状态和本质更多的TE和系统，并从历史和理论两方面获得原创性知识。结果的中心如下：在20世纪70年代后半期持续的通胀下，80年代的美元兑其他货币的汇率理应大幅下跌。然而，由于昂贵的货币政策，外国资本的流入(资本余额的大黑数字)推高了美元，出现了一种不同寻常的强势美元。虽然开始受到基于广场协议的各国协调削减的影响，但出乎意料的是，外资(资本外逃)的逆流并未产生。外国资本的流出(黑色数字的减少或资本余额的不足)通过释放高利率来解释不能解释80年代后半期美元的疲软。事实上，问题不是在美国的外交形势和适合的内部条件。尽管几乎所有国内大宗商品都在通胀的基础上提高了价格，但只有外币是一种异常低端的产品。“强势美元”意味着“疲软的其他货币汇率”。被亲币政策钉在“货币市场”的美元流入了“汇市”，作为一个低端产品市场如波涛汹涌般释放出来。用一美元购买外币会提高作为外币价格的汇率。美元的暴跌纯粹是由内部因素造成的，虽然政策可以扭曲法律，但不会被取消。一部法律以不同的形式被转移到其他地方。一项政策终究是要在客观经济条件下进行修改和恢复的。较少

项目成果

Index of Literature into the Modern Japan Financial History (the latter part)

日本近代金融史文献索引（下）

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: KOGAKUIN DAGAKU KYOTSUKATEI KENKYURONSO-Kogakuin University Bulletin-General Education No. 42-1
• 作者: 吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida
• 通讯作者: Ken-ichi Yoshida

書評:円高・円安とバブル経済の研究(松本朗著)

书评：日元升值、日元贬值与泡沫经济研究（松本晃着）

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 金融経済研究(日本金融学会編) 第20号
• 作者: 吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一
• 通讯作者: 吉田賢一

近代日本金融史文献目録(前編)

日本近代金融史参考书目（上）

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 工学院大学共通過程研究論叢 第41-2号
• 作者: 吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一
• 通讯作者: 吉田賢一

Foreign exchange : Institutional historical changes and the basic mechanism of fluctuation of rates (above)

外汇：制度历史变迁和汇率波动的基本机制（上）

• 发表时间: 2003
• 期刊: KOGAKUIN DAGAKU KYOTSUKATEI KENKYURONSO-Kogakuin University Bulletin-General Education No.40-2
• 作者: 吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida
• 通讯作者: Ken-ichi Yoshida

外国為替 : 制度の史的変遷と相場変動の基本メカニズム(上)

外汇：市场波动的制度历史变迁和基本机制（上）

• 发表时间: 2003
• 期刊: 工学院大学共通過程研究論叢 第40-2号
• 作者: 吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida;Ken-ichi Yoshida;吉田賢一;吉田賢一;吉田賢一
• 通讯作者: 吉田賢一