Development newly designed computer simulation of propagation pattern of infectious diseases with independent of traditional mathematical model and its application.

我们的研究主题是利用蒙特卡罗方法（MCM）建立对实际社会中任何传染病传播模式的完整描述方法。有两个必要的方面需要考虑：1)与病理方面有关的参数，2)与社会环境和活动有关的参数和情况。传统的数学模型几乎不可能同时处理这两方面的参数。因此，开发一种数学模型以外的新的模型来描述传染病的传播模式是我们的目标。我们设定了两个目标作为我们不可避免的目标：1)从电脑游戏到科学工具；2)计算方法的急剧改进。有必要对所采用的计算机仿真算法的合理性进行验证。否则，任何计算机模拟都将保持为计算机游戏。我们进行了统计分析，以验证和发展出电脑游戏。第一个目标的更多结果在日本数学社会学全国会议（第37、38、39次）和日美数学社会学联合会议（2005年6月3日，札幌）上被报道，我们认为它得到了验证。我们的MCM计算机仿真可以从两个方面处理复杂的参数。我们的新方法与直观的传统数学模型是互补的，而不是对立的。通过将MCM应用于极为不同的传染病（麻疹和SARS/流感），尝试改进计算方法。最后，从病理学、预防/控制政策和社会环境/活动三个方面综合考虑，提出了一套对飞沫传播有效的广义MCM方案。虽然我们的模拟甚至适用于由几个地区组成的社会，但将考虑更广义的方法。就在我们的研究项目开始后，美国引进了几个预算总额达数千万美元的大项目。我们现在正准备慎重而迅速地公布我们的结果。少

The main theme of our research is to develop the complete descriptive method of any pattern of propagation of infectious diseases in the actual society by using Monte Carlo method (MCM). There are two necessary aspects to be considered: 1) parameters related with pathological aspects, 2) parameters and situations related with social environment and activities. It is almost impossible for the conventional mathematical models to handle parameters from both aspects. Therefore, it is our goal to develop a new model other than mathematical models in describing the transmitting pattern of infectious diseases.We set two targets as our unavoidable objectives: 1) from computer game to scientific tool, and 2) drastic improvement in computational methodology. It is necessary to verify the rationality of the algorithm of computer simulation employed. Otherwise, any computer simulation will remain as a computer game. We performed statistical analyses to verify and grow out of computer game.The resu … More lts of the first objective were reported at the national meeting of the Japan Mathematical Sociology (37th, 38th and 39th) as well as at the Japan-US Joint Meeting on Mathematical Sociology (3rd, Jun. 2005, Sapporo), and we believe it was verified. Our MCM computer simulation can handle complicated parameters from the two aspects. And our new method is complementary to the intuitive conventional mathematical models rather than they are confronting each other.Attempts of improving computational methodology were performed by applying MCM to the cases of extremely different contagions (measles and SARS/influenza). Finally, a generalized MCM program has come out, which is effective to the droplet-type transmission with considering various parameters from three aspects of 1) pathology, 2) preventive/containment policy, as well as 3) social environment/activity. Although our simulation is applicable even to the society consisting of several regions, the more generalized methodology will be considered.Just after our research project started, several big projects with total amount of budget of dozens of million dollars were introduced in US. We are now preparing to publish our results deliberatively and rapidly. Less