A Study of the Uncertain Fire Spread Phenomena and an Evaluation Analysis for the Fire Protection Systems of Ship

如果船舶和海上结构物中发生火灾，必须安全疏散人员，船员有足够的时间进行灭火和防止蔓延活动，因此，可以强调设计防火隔板、舱壁和天花板的必要性。为了充分满足日益增多的大型客船和高速船对轻量化的要求，提出了防火设计和性能评价的方法。本文建立了一个数学模型，以获得燃烧特性，并对火灾蔓延现象进行了分析。特别是在设计阶段，应仔细分析火灾控制因素中的模糊性和不确定性，因为它们之间存在相互关系，特别是在强参数的情况下 ...更多信息 依赖现象。本文提出了一种基于模糊集理论的数学模型，它能较好地解决这些问题：（1）考虑了类似于海洋火灾的单元火的发生和爆发现象，确定了相应的决定爆发可能性的阈值曲线，使用模糊关系。2）火灾将蔓延到相邻单元的条件，以及防止该危险所需的不易燃单元间壁材料的厚度范围，在模糊决策模型中引入不确定值，确定了消防系统的安全性，将消防系统安全性评价的分析过程分解为层次模型、影响模型和评价决策模型。为了假定概念，定性和模糊定量的元素，分析评价方法，提出了基于这些模型，通过多准则分析，利用模糊理论。在适当的时候，消防系统的选择问题将作为所提出的方法的应用。少

In the event of a spontaneous outbreak of fire in ships and offshore structures, it is necessary that the personnel be safety evacuated and the crew get sufficient time to engage in fire extinguishing and spread prevention activities, whereby, the need to design fire preventive partitions, bulkheads and ceilings can be stressed. Fire preventive designs which could sufficiently take care of the requirements of an ever increasing number of giant passenger ships and high speed vessels that need to be lighter than ever, and the performance assessment of such designs are being dealt with here.This study develops a mathematical model to obtain the combustion characteristics and give an understanding of the fire spread phenomena of the problem of cell fires such as marine f ires. Especially, the fuzziness and thd indeterminancy within the governing factors of marine fires are to be carefully analyzed for their inter-relationships at the design stage, especially in the case of strongly paramet … More er dependent phenomena. Mathematical models based upon the theory of fuzzy sets, that can provide a right solution to these problems are presented as follows.1)The phenomena of the incidence and outburst of cell fires like that in the case of marine fires are considered and the corresponding threshold curves that decide the possibility of an outburst are determined, using the fuzzy relationships.2)The conditions under which the fire would spread into the adjacent cells, and the range of thicknesses for the noninflammable intercell wall materials necessary to prevent that danger, are determined then by introducing the indeterminable values into the fuzz determination model.The analytical process of evaluation for fire protection system is broken down here into a hierarchy model, an impact model and an evaluation decision model. In order to postulate the conceptual, qualitative and fuzzy-quantitative elements, an analytical evaluation method based upon these models, is proposed through a multi-criteria analysis using the fuzzy theory. The choosing problem of fire protection systems would be presented as a applications of the proposed method in due course of time. Less