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Reliability Analysis Considering Items Related to Human Error on Functional Design Applications of Marine Safty Systems

考虑与海洋安全系统功能设计应用中的人为错误相关的项目的可靠性分析

基本信息

批准号：
06452353
负责人：
FUKUCHI Nobuyoshi
金额：
$ 4.1万
依托单位：
KYUSHU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1994
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1994 至 1995
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

With the deterioration of the technical ability of crew members of mixed nationalities, the frequency of incidence of marine accidents such as collisions, running agrounds or ship fires ; also tends to increase gradually. The development of a methodology for the reliability analysis of the means available for the prevention of marine accidents originating from human errors is becoming highly desirable in recent years.This study presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the functional design applications of marine safty systems. This process of probability estimations is divided into three stages. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree. Next, the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of unsafeness ; which is defined as similar to the sense scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Lastly, the improved choice of items are used in the calculation using the Boolian function to reduce the risk of accident probability in the functional system. The effects of countermeasures adopted are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory. As a practical example, the conditions for reducing the incidence of fire spreads during a ship fire are investigated using the proposed method.

随着混血船员技能水平的下降，碰撞、搁浅、船舶起火等海上事故的发生频率也有逐渐上升的趋势。针对海上安全系统功能设计应用中的事故发生概率估计问题，提出了一种基于可靠性分析的预防海上人为事故的方法。这一概率估计过程分为三个阶段。首先，利用故障树对设计中的功能系统进行可靠性定性分析。接下来，通过使用不安全程度来确定功能系统中人为错误的概率和设备故障的频率；该不安全程度被定义为类似于基于工程师的经验和创造力的感觉尺度。最后，利用布尔函数将改进的项目选择用于计算，以降低功能系统中的事故概率风险。在基于故障树分析和模糊理论的计算中，对所采取的对策效果进行了定量预测。作为应用实例，利用所提出的方法研究了降低船舶火灾中火灾蔓延发生率的条件。