The Methodology of Ensuing Safety and Risk Assessment for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error

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The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the methodology of ensuing safety and risk assessment for prevention of marine accidents originating from human error.(1) The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree (FT) . Next, the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Thirdly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce the risk of accident pr … More obability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.Furthermore, the prediction way of effectiveness to reduce the risk by suitable countermeasures in specified functional system, and the method of risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation or the background risk are proposed. As a practical example, the risk evaluation analyses for preventing from the deaths in the marine fire are investigated using the proposed method.(2) It may be difficult to establish the methodology for safe evacuation in the case of outbreak of a marine fire, by originating in the intricacies of the spread phenomena and the uncertain behaviors of evacuation based on human factors without uniformity.Hence, the evacuation behaviors can be predicted by using the proposed walking model with individual capacity of visible length and avoidance for obstacles. Further, the mathematical model of psychological intelligence process in an emergency is contrived herein, in which the evacuation movement is simulated in the consideration of the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action according to the magnitudes of accident stimulus. By applying these models to common spaces in a dinning cruise ship, taking account of the human factors with psychological action is rather valued in the safe evacuation system and the validity of the proposed models can be confirmed.The evacuation movement can be predicted considering the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action with lowering smoke layer by the proposed method. The measured index of risk for the evacuation system is defined by using the results of a simultaneous simulation of smoke diffusion and evacuation. This risk index mat be used the comparison between various safety systems and its validity is confirmed using model of a common space in a typical cruise ship.(3) The redundancy system for safe navigation and cargo management be aimed at the development of functional devices ensuring safety and reliability. Moreover, the methodology of system design for the safe navigation system and reliable cargo handling system, consisted of reliability on hardware and human factors, should be desirably instituted by grasping the personnel behavior based on the associated in simulated operation and investigation of human errors. A methodology of ensuring safety and reliability for the design of ship modernizing system is described in this paper. Further, an estimation method on the probability of human error and the frequency of device in the functional system is proposed by using an apprehensive degree, which is defined as similar to the sense scale based on the experience of skilled ship operators. As a practical example, the reliability analysis on automatic cargo handling system developing newly are carried out using our proposed method. Less