The Methodology of Ensuing Safety and Risk Assessment for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error

近年来，人因失误导致的海上事故系统可靠性分析的发展被认为具有重要意义。本研究由以下三部分组成：(1)提出了船舶系统功能设计中事故发生概率估计的分析方法。首先，利用故障树(FT)对设计中的功能系统进行可靠性定性分析。接下来，通过使用焦虑度来确定功能系统中人为错误的概率和设备故障的频率，该焦虑度被定义为类似于基于工程师的经验和独创性的敏感标尺。第三，通过布尔逻辑的计算进行改进项目的选择，以降低事故Pr…的风险在功能系统中的可控性更强。在基于故障树分析和模糊理论的计算中，定量预测了适应对策的效果，进而提出了在特定的功能系统中通过适当的对策降低风险的有效性预测方法，以及以总费用期望或背景风险最小为手段的风险评估方法。作为应用实例，应用该方法对海上火灾中人员伤亡的预防进行了风险评估分析。(2)由于海上火灾蔓延现象的复杂性和基于人为因素的疏散行为的不确定性，使得海上火灾发生时的安全疏散方法难以建立，因此可以利用所提出的具有个体可见长度和避障能力的步行模型来预测人员的疏散行为。在此基础上，建立了突发事件中心理智能过程的数学模型，根据事故刺激的大小，考虑了步行速度的减慢和心理行为中自我隔离的发生，模拟了疏散运动。通过将这些模型应用于餐饮游轮的公共空间，在安全疏散系统中更看重考虑人的心理行为的因素，验证了所提出的模型的有效性，该方法可以在考虑步行速度降低和降低烟层的心理行为中发生自我隔离的情况下预测疏散运动。利用烟雾扩散和疏散同时模拟的结果，定义了疏散系统的测量风险指数。利用该风险指标对典型邮轮的公用舱模型进行了各种安全系统的比较，并验证了该指标的有效性。(3)安全航行和货物管理冗余系统是以研制安全可靠的功能设备为目标的。此外，安全航行系统和可靠货物装卸系统的系统设计方法，包括硬件可靠性和人为因素，应在模拟操作和人为错误调查的基础上把握人员行为。本文介绍了一种保证船舶现代化系统设计安全性和可靠性的方法论。在此基础上，提出了一种功能系统中人误概率和设备频度的估计方法，该方法定义为类似于基于熟练船舶操作员经验的感觉尺度。作为应用实例，对新研制的自动装卸系统进行了可靠性分析。较少

The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the methodology of ensuing safety and risk assessment for prevention of marine accidents originating from human error.(1) The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree (FT) . Next, the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Thirdly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce the risk of accident pr … More obability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.Furthermore, the prediction way of effectiveness to reduce the risk by suitable countermeasures in specified functional system, and the method of risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation or the background risk are proposed. As a practical example, the risk evaluation analyses for preventing from the deaths in the marine fire are investigated using the proposed method.(2) It may be difficult to establish the methodology for safe evacuation in the case of outbreak of a marine fire, by originating in the intricacies of the spread phenomena and the uncertain behaviors of evacuation based on human factors without uniformity.Hence, the evacuation behaviors can be predicted by using the proposed walking model with individual capacity of visible length and avoidance for obstacles. Further, the mathematical model of psychological intelligence process in an emergency is contrived herein, in which the evacuation movement is simulated in the consideration of the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action according to the magnitudes of accident stimulus. By applying these models to common spaces in a dinning cruise ship, taking account of the human factors with psychological action is rather valued in the safe evacuation system and the validity of the proposed models can be confirmed.The evacuation movement can be predicted considering the decrease of walking speed and the occurrence of self-isolation in psychological action with lowering smoke layer by the proposed method. The measured index of risk for the evacuation system is defined by using the results of a simultaneous simulation of smoke diffusion and evacuation. This risk index mat be used the comparison between various safety systems and its validity is confirmed using model of a common space in a typical cruise ship.(3) The redundancy system for safe navigation and cargo management be aimed at the development of functional devices ensuring safety and reliability. Moreover, the methodology of system design for the safe navigation system and reliable cargo handling system, consisted of reliability on hardware and human factors, should be desirably instituted by grasping the personnel behavior based on the associated in simulated operation and investigation of human errors. A methodology of ensuring safety and reliability for the design of ship modernizing system is described in this paper. Further, an estimation method on the probability of human error and the frequency of device in the functional system is proposed by using an apprehensive degree, which is defined as similar to the sense scale based on the experience of skilled ship operators. As a practical example, the reliability analysis on automatic cargo handling system developing newly are carried out using our proposed method. Less