Safety Reliability Analysis Considering Accidents Originating from Human Error on Preventive Design of Marine Man-Machine Systems

考虑人为事故的海洋人机系统预防性设计的安全可靠性分析

• 批准号: 09555309
• 负责人: FUKUCHI Nobuyoshi
• 金额: $ 4.03万
• 依托单位: KYUSHU UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1997 至 1998
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09555309/
• 关键词: Reliability analysis; Human error; Man-Machine system; Incidence probability; Fault tree analysis; Fuzzy theory; Thermal stress; Protected equipment; 非難安全性; 人間・機械系; システム設計; 構造分析; 避難シミュレーション; 人的過誤

The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the safety and reliability analysis considering accidents originating from human error on the functional design of marine man-machine systems.The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree(FT) ^<1)>. Next the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Lastly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce t … More he risk of accident probability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.The second part describes un-measurability of some events and the measurable reliability of accident countermeasures. The event tree analysis(ETA) is used to evaluate reliability of the functional designs of marine systems. Generally, the ETA estimates the incidence probability of an accident by considering the incidence probability of every duster event leading to the accident. The exact estimation of duster event related to human errors is generally difficult to find, since those include several un-measurable factors, and the results could be highly misleading. In this part, a method of reliability analysis considering the measurability of some duster events like human error is proposed. This estimation process of measurable reliability is based on the firm degree of belief of the occurred event and an evaluation by a fuzzy integral using Belief measure or Plausibility measure.The third part is a characteristic study on thermal stress and countermeasures for human body in marine exposure working space. In order to grasp the relation between the heat stress of human body and the thermal environmental factors, a formula for heat stress is established with a view of calculating the quantity of heat storage using the heat balance model of human body. This formula that is consisted of temperature, wind velocity, metabolic heat and clothes heat resistance, can be defined to be the critical working hours to lay down the limit time when a variation of body foundation temperature exceeds the fixed threshold value. The necessity of several kinds of compensated equipment for the protection of workers against severe exposure environment is evaluated by use of present judgment method. Less

近年来，由人为失误引起的海上事故的系统可靠性分析的发展被认为具有重要意义。本研究由以下三个部分组成，对海洋人机系统功能设计中考虑人为失误事故的安全性和可靠性进行分析。第一部分提出了海洋系统功能设计过程中事故发生概率估计的分析方法。首先，利用故障树(FT)^<1)>对所设计的功能系统的可靠性进行定性分析。接下来，通过使用担忧程度来决定功能系统中人为错误的概率和设备故障的频率，该担忧程度被定义为类似于基于工程师的经验和聪明才智的合理尺度。最后，通过布尔逻辑的计算来执行改进项的选择，以降低功能系统中发生事故概率的风险。基于故障树分析和模糊理论，在计算中定量预测了采取对策的效果。第二部分描述了某些事件的不可测性和事故对策的可测可靠性。事件树分析（ETA）用于评估海洋系统功能设计的可靠性。一般来说，ETA通过考虑导致事故发生的每个尘埃事件的发生概率来估计事故的发生概率。通常很难找到与人为错误相关的除尘事件的准确估计，因为其中包括几个不可测量的因素，并且结果可能具有很大的误导性。在这一部分中，提出了一种考虑人为错误等除尘事件可测量性的可靠性分析方法。这种可测量可靠性的估计过程是基于对所发生事件的置信程度，并使用置信度或合理性测度通过模糊积分进行评估。第三部分是海洋暴露工作空间中人体热应力和对策的特性研究。为了掌握人体热应激与热环境因素之间的关系，利用人体热平衡模型计算热量储存量，建立了热应激公式。这个由温度、风速、代谢热和衣服耐热性组成的公式可以定义为临界工作时间，规定人体基础温度变化超过固定阈值时的极限时间。运用现有的判断方法，评价了几种保护工人免受严重暴露环境影响的补偿设备的必要性。较少的

项目成果

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi: "User Requirements and Operational Feedback-Safety Navigation Reducing Number of Operators-" Proc.of 6th Int.Marine Design Conference. Vol.2. 93-98 (1997)

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi：“用户需求和操作反馈-安全导航减少操作员数量-”第六届国际海洋设计会议论文集。

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi,Takeshi Shinoda: "Reliability Analysis Considering Accidents Originating from Human Error on Functional Design of Marine Systems" Proc.of 6^<th> Int.Marine Design Conference. Vol.1. 329-343 (1997)

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi、Takeshi Shinoda：“考虑源于人为错误的事故的船舶系统功能设计的可靠性分析”第 6 届国际船舶设计会议论文集。

村山雅己、福地信義、中橋美智子: "海洋暴露作業における人体への熱的影響と温熱対策の評価" 日本造船学会論文集. 第183号. 499-508 (1998)

Masami Murayama、Nobuyoshi Fukuchi、Michiko Nakahashi：“海洋暴露工作中对人体的热影响和热对策的评估”日本造船学会汇刊第 183. 499-508 (1998)。

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi: "Reliability Analysis Considering Accidents Originating from Human Error on Functional Design of Marine Systems" Proc.of 6^<th> Int.Marine Design Conference. vol.1. 329-343 (1997)

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi：“考虑到海洋系统功能设计中人为错误的事故的可靠性分析”第 6 届国际海洋设计会议论文集。

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi,Takeshi Shinoda,Toshi-ichi Tachibana: "Reliability Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Originating from Human Error" Proc.of 17^<th> Conference of Maritime Transportation,Shipbuilding and Offshore,Rio de Janeiro. 1-12 (1998)

Nobuyoshi Fukuchi、Takeshi Shinoda、Toshi-ichi Tachibana：“预防人为失误引起的海上事故的可靠性分析”，里约热内卢第 17 届海上运输、造船和近海会议会议论文集。