Safety Reliability Analysis Considering Accidents Originating from Human Error on Preventive Design of Marine Man-Machine Systems

近年来，人为失误引起的船舶事故的系统可靠性分析的发展被认为是非常重要的。本文研究了船舶人机系统功能设计中考虑人因失误事故的安全可靠性分析，主要包括以下三个部分：第一部分提出了船舶人机系统功能设计中事故发生概率的分析方法;首先，利用故障树（FT）^<1）>对所设计的功能系统的可靠性进行定性分析。其次，在功能系统中的人为错误的概率和设备故障的频率是决定通过使用的程度的忧虑，这是定义为类似于基于工程师的经验和独创性的明智的规模。最后，通过布尔逻辑的计算进行改进项的选择，以减少计算量， 关于我们 功能系统中的事故概率风险。基于事故树分析和模糊理论，对事故对策的效果进行了定量预测。第二部分描述了某些事件的不可测性和事故对策的可测可靠性。采用事件树分析法（ETA）对船舶系统功能设计进行可靠性评估。通常，ETA通过考虑导致事故的每个沙尘暴事件的发生概率来估计事故的发生概率。与人为错误有关的沙尘暴事件的准确估计通常很难找到，因为这些因素包括一些不可测量的因素，并且结果可能具有高度误导性。在这一部分中，提出了一种考虑人为错误等离散事件可测性的可靠性分析方法。这种可测量可靠性的评估过程是基于对所发生事件的确信程度，并利用置信度或似然度进行模糊积分评价。第三部分是海洋暴露作业空间人体热应力特性研究及对策。为了掌握人体热应力与热环境因素之间的关系，利用人体热平衡模型，从计算蓄热量的角度出发，建立了人体热应力计算公式。该公式由温度、风速、代谢热和衣服热阻组成，定义为人体基础温度变化超过一定阈值时的临界工作时间。利用现有的判断方法，对几种补偿设备对恶劣暴露环境作业人员防护的必要性进行了评价。少

The development of system reliability analysis of marine accidents originating from human error is regarded as being of major importance in recent years. This study, that consists of the following three parts, presents the safety and reliability analysis considering accidents originating from human error on the functional design of marine man-machine systems.The first part presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the function design of marine systems. Firstly, the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree(FT) ^<1)>. Next the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of apprehensive, which is defined as similar to the sensible scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Lastly, the selection of improved items are executed by the calculation using Boolian logic to reduce t … More he risk of accident probability in the functional system. The effects of adapting countermeasures are predicted quantitatively in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory.The second part describes un-measurability of some events and the measurable reliability of accident countermeasures. The event tree analysis(ETA) is used to evaluate reliability of the functional designs of marine systems. Generally, the ETA estimates the incidence probability of an accident by considering the incidence probability of every duster event leading to the accident. The exact estimation of duster event related to human errors is generally difficult to find, since those include several un-measurable factors, and the results could be highly misleading. In this part, a method of reliability analysis considering the measurability of some duster events like human error is proposed. This estimation process of measurable reliability is based on the firm degree of belief of the occurred event and an evaluation by a fuzzy integral using Belief measure or Plausibility measure.The third part is a characteristic study on thermal stress and countermeasures for human body in marine exposure working space. In order to grasp the relation between the heat stress of human body and the thermal environmental factors, a formula for heat stress is established with a view of calculating the quantity of heat storage using the heat balance model of human body. This formula that is consisted of temperature, wind velocity, metabolic heat and clothes heat resistance, can be defined to be the critical working hours to lay down the limit time when a variation of body foundation temperature exceeds the fixed threshold value. The necessity of several kinds of compensated equipment for the protection of workers against severe exposure environment is evaluated by use of present judgment method. Less