MODELLING AND EVALUATING ON DYNAMIC TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR ANALYSIS FOR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT POLICY

提出了动态出行需求预测模型和出行行为分析模型，并将其应用于交通规划和交通管理方案的评价。根据模型的应用领域，将其分为出发时间决策模型、动态交通分配模型、通勤决策行为动力学模型、宏观交通流动态模拟模型和出行需求分时预测模型。通过本文的研究，我们得到了以下结果：（1）将出发时间选择模型与小时时间分配模型相结合，建立了出发时间分配/分配的联立模型。通过对真实的路网模型的应用，进一步证明了弹性时间和道路收费制度的引入对交通拥堵缓解有较大的影响。(2)提出了考虑交通信息影响的路径选择行为动态测量与分析方法。分析了信息对路径选择的影响，给出了实际路径选择和预测出行时间模型的分析结果。(3)提出了一种精确的网络仿真方法，该方法动态地表示道路网络上的交通流，模拟单个车辆的运动。通过实际模拟，证实了该模型能充分再现交叉口延误，并在相当大的网络规模上进行精确模拟是可能的。

The models for predicting dynamic travel demand and analyzing travel behaviur were proposed and applied to evaluating transportation plans and traffic management schemes in this paper. Based on their application domain, the models were classified into several groups as follows, departure time decision, dynamic traffic assignment, dynamics of commuting decision behavior, dynamic simulation of macroscopic traffic flow and time-of-day travel demand forcasting. Through this paper, we obtained the following results :(1) We developed the simultaneous model of departure time distribution/assignment that departure time choice model was integrated into hourly taffic assignment model. Furthermore, it was shown that the introductions of the flextime and road pricing systems have large effects for traffic congection relaxation through the application of this model to real road network.(2) The methods of surveying and analyzing the dynamics of route choice behavior considering the effect of traffic information were presented. The results of the analysis concerning the effect of information on route choice, actical route choice, and predicted travel time model which was introduced to describe the day-to-day dynamic were shown.(3) A precise network simulation method was proposed, which represented traffic flows on a road network dynamically, modelling motions of individual vehicles. Through pracitcal simulations, it was confirmed that the model reproduced intersection delays adequately and that the exact simuation was possible on a fairly large scale network.