Multi-scale adaptations to climate change and social-ecological sustainability in coastal areas (MAGIC)

沿海地区气候变化和社会生态可持续性的多尺度适应（MAGIC）

• 批准号: NE/L008807/1
• 负责人: Katrina Brown
• 金额: $ 28.59万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL008807%2F1
• 关键词: Multi; scale; adaptations; climate; change

Adaptation plans have become increasingly popular across the globe. While some adaptations have beneficial outcomes, many adaptations have unintended consequences for vulnerability, either for the decision makers themselves or for other stakeholders. This is particularly relevant in coastal zones where both marine and land-based adaptations have an impact and where human pressures are greatest.We believe a better understanding of the underlying social-ecological processes driving adaptation in coastal areas, and particularly the feedbacks between risk from biophysical change, cognitive processes, and adaptation, will reduce the incidence of maladaptations while increasing the frequency of win-win adaptations. We use a model of "private proactive adaptation to climate change" (Grothmann & Patt 2005) to assess the interactions between: a) the actual risk posed by climate change; b) cognitive factors such as perceived risk and perceived adaptive capacity; c) adaptations; and d) situated learning when decisions makers participate in modeling processes. We assess the relationship between these drivers and adaptation plans in coastal areas at three scales: individual decision makers; local communities of practice; and regional planning authorities. Participatory modelling with decision makers could result in lasting impacts for enhanced coastal resilience.In each of three coastal regions: the Languedoc-Rousillon in France; Cornwall in the UK; and the Garden Route coast in South Africa, we will identify four examples where users, communities of practice, and regional authorities have developed adaptation plans and strategies resulting in the unintended transfer of vulnerability from one sector, scale or place to another. We will use available empirical data and models, participatory agent-based modeling, interpretative methods; and reflexive learning during the modeling process to catalyze and assess changes in the cognitive perceptions of decision makers who design adaptation plans.

适应计划在地球仪越来越受欢迎。虽然有些适应措施产生了有益的结果，但许多适应措施对决策者本身或其他利益攸关方造成了意想不到的脆弱性后果。这在沿海地区尤其重要，因为海洋和陆地适应都有影响，人类压力也最大。我们相信，更好地了解推动沿海地区适应的潜在社会生态过程，特别是生物物理变化风险，认知过程和适应之间的反馈，将减少适应不良的发生率，同时增加双赢适应的频率。我们使用一个“私人主动适应气候变化”的模型（Grothmann & Patt 2005）来评估以下因素之间的相互作用：a）气候变化带来的实际风险; B）认知因素，如感知风险和感知适应能力; c）适应;以及d）决策者参与建模过程时的情境学习。我们评估这些驱动因素和沿海地区的适应计划之间的关系在三个尺度：个人决策者;当地社区的做法;和区域规划当局。与决策者的预测性建模可能会对增强沿海地区的复原力产生持久的影响。和南非花园大道海岸，我们将确定四个例子，其中用户、实践社区和地区当局制定了适应计划和战略，导致脆弱性从一个部门意外转移，规模或地点。我们将使用现有的经验数据和模型，参与式基于代理的建模，解释方法;和自反性学习在建模过程中，催化和评估的变化，在设计适应计划的决策者的认知感知。

项目成果

Mitigation and adaptation in polycentric systems: sources of power in the pursuit of collective goals

多中心系统中的缓解和适应：追求集体目标的力量来源

• DOI: 10.1002/wcc.479
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: WIREs Climate Change
• 作者: Morrison T

A multiscale analysis of social-ecological system robustness and vulnerability in Cornwall, UK

英国康沃尔郡社会生态系统稳健性和脆弱性的多尺度分析

• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-019-01530-7
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Regional Environmental Change
• 影响因子: 4.2
• 作者: Naylor L

Social Ecological Dynamics of Catchment Resilience.

• DOI: 10.3390/w13030349
• 发表时间: 2021-02-01
• 期刊: Water
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Adger WN;Brown K;Butler C;Quinn T
• 通讯作者: Quinn T

How local water and waterbody meanings shape flood risk perception and risk management preferences

当地水和水体的含义如何影响洪水风险认知和风险管理偏好

• DOI: 10.1007/s11625-019-00665-0
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Sustainability Science
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Quinn T

Analyzing community resilience as an emergent property of dynamic social-ecological systems

• DOI: 10.5751/es-09784-230124
• 发表时间: 2018-01-01
• 期刊: ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Faulkner, Lucy;Brown, Katrina;Quinn, Tara
• 通讯作者: Quinn, Tara