EMERGE: Multi-hazards and emergent risks in Northern Europe's remote and vulnerable regions

出现：北欧偏远和脆弱地区的多重灾害和紧急风险

• 批准号: NE/W003775/1
• 负责人: Christopher White
• 金额: $ 7.05万
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW003775%2F1
• 关键词: EMERGE; Multi; hazards; emergent; risks

Weather-driven hazards, such as floods, storms, landslides and severe winter weather, account for 90% of the world's natural disasters, causing significant impacts to people, infrastructure and natural environments. Across Northern Europe, these hazards are becoming more pervasive in a changing climate. As they do, and as other 'emergent' hazards, such as wildfires and droughts, start to affect parts of Northern Europe where they have not before, transport links and supply chains, ecosystems, agricultural yields and forestry are increasingly being impacted. These impacts are intrinsically linked to resilience and coping capacities, with their severity greatest in the most vulnerable and remote regions, including people, economies and communities, the infrastructure that supports and connects them, and the goods and services they produce. Recent floods and landslides in remote regions across Northern Europe have been related to the same weather systems, however our understanding of the timing and impacts from these interconnected events is poorly understood, highlighting a critical need to better understand, and find novel solutions to, the emerging risks of weather-driven natural hazards in remote regions.The EMERGE project, formed by a new multi-hazard focused international partnership between the University of Strathclyde, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, and the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, in collaboration with British Geological Society, Newcastle University, and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, brings together experts to explore weather-driven hazards - primarily extreme rainfall, landslides and floods - and their emergent and compounding risks across Northern Europe's remote and vulnerable regions. EMERGE has a focus of the UK, Norway and Iceland, aimed at bringing together researchers that work in similar climatic zones to foster collaboration and create novel, cutting-edge science that is beneficial to both the UK and its near neighbours.EMERGE's activities will address critical research questions relating to: (1) the emergence and compounding risks of weather-driven natural hazards in remote regions; (2) the observation, prediction and monitoring of these hazards across the UK, Iceland and Norway; and (3) regional research priorities and resilience-building strategies. These will be explored through a series of expert workshops and 'living labs' in Glasgow, Oslo and Reykjavik, supported by wider dissemination activities, that will create a forum that fosters open scientific collaboration, knowledge brokering and information sharing, and identifies needs and opportunities.Our remote communities and environments must undergo significant change if they are to successfully transition to being climate resilient. The grand challenge presented by climate change, combined with the disproportionate impacts of natural hazards in remote regions, demands a new international approach to society's interaction with the environment in order to build a more equitable and sustainable future. The new partnerships formed by EMERGE will develop world-leading research to produce critical new scientific knowledge and support the development of solutions that build climate resilience in some of our most vulnerable regions.

洪水、风暴、山体滑坡和严冬天气等天气灾害占世界自然灾害的90%，对人类、基础设施和自然环境造成重大影响。在整个北方，这些危害在不断变化的气候中变得越来越普遍。随着这些灾害以及野火和干旱等其他“紧急”灾害开始影响北方部分地区，运输环节和供应链、生态系统、农业产量和林业正日益受到影响。这些影响与复原力和应对能力有着内在的联系，在最脆弱和最偏远的地区，包括人民、经济体和社区、支持和连接它们的基础设施以及它们生产的货物和服务，其严重性最大。最近发生在北方偏远地区的洪水和山体滑坡与相同的天气系统有关，但我们对这些相互关联的事件的时间和影响的理解却知之甚少，这突出表明迫切需要更好地了解偏远地区天气驱动的自然灾害的新风险，并找到新的解决方案。由斯特拉斯克莱德大学、冰岛气象局和挪威水资源和能源局与英国地质学会、纽卡斯尔大学和苏格兰环境保护局合作建立的一个新的以多种灾害为重点的国际伙伴关系，该组织汇集了专家，探讨天气驱动的灾害（主要是极端降雨、山体滑坡和洪水）及其在北方欧洲偏远和脆弱地区的紧急和复合风险。EMERGE以英国、挪威和冰岛为重点，旨在将在相似气候带工作的研究人员聚集在一起，促进合作，创造有利于英国及其近邻的新的尖端科学。EMERGE的活动将解决与以下有关的关键研究问题：（1）偏远地区天气驱动的自然灾害的出现和复合风险;（2）在英国、冰岛和挪威对这些灾害进行观察、预测和监测;（3）区域研究优先事项和建立可靠性的战略。将通过在格拉斯哥、奥斯陆和雷克雅未克举办一系列专家研讨会和“生活实验室”来探讨这些问题，并辅之以更广泛的传播活动，这将创建一个论坛，促进开放的科学合作、知识中介和信息共享，并确定需求和机会。我们的偏远社区和环境必须经历重大变化，才能成功地过渡到具有气候抗御能力。气候变化带来的巨大挑战，加上自然灾害对偏远地区造成的不成比例的影响，要求对社会与环境的互动采取新的国际办法，以便建设一个更加公平和可持续的未来。EMERGE成立的新伙伴关系将发展世界领先的研究，以产生关键的新科学知识，并支持开发解决方案，在我们一些最脆弱的地区建立气候适应能力。

项目成果

A gauge-based sub-daily extreme rainfall climatology for western Europe

西欧基于仪表的次日极端降雨气候学

• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100585
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Weather and Climate Extremes
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Whitford A

Compound extreme hourly rainfall preconditioned by heatwaves most likely in the mid-latitudes

• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100563
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Weather and Climate Extremes
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Christoph Sauter;H. Fowler;S. Westra;Haider Ali;N. Peleg;C. White