EVENT-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF EXPECTANCIES, ALCOHOL USE, AND CONSEQUENCES

摘要 大学生中的酒精使用，滥用及其产生的负面影响已被广泛研究。 记录在案。尽管在理解和防止过度饮酒方面作出了大量努力， 消费和相关的伤害，相当大的差距，在文献中的病因和维护， 高风险的大学饮酒仍然存在。先前的研究表明，与酒精有关的负面事件可以 促进饮酒行为的改变，改变的动机，以及与饮酒有关的认知。的 一项拟议中的研究将有助于了解年轻的成年大学生如何自我改变 因为经历了负面的后果。在本建议中，我们使用事件级透视图来 研究预期、饮酒和后果之间的相互关系。使用交互式语音 响应（IVR），400名大学生将报告他们的期望，饮酒和酒精相关的 每天三次，间隔两周，为期一年。通过使用每日报告， 时间，我们可以确保预期，饮酒和后果之间的时间关系;最小化 回忆偏差;调查预期、饮酒和后果的相互关系;并检查 人与人之间对饮酒及其后果的影响。使用多层次模型，我们 将（1）检查酒精预期和酒精使用之间的日常关系;（2）研究 随着时间的推移，预期、后果和饮酒的双向影响;（3）检查 饮酒的直接后果会改变随后的预期和饮酒时间;以及（4） 研究人与人之间关系的时变和时变调节因素， 期待饮酒和后果与自我改变有关的因素对 了解高风险饮酒的维持和波动，最终可能有助于了解 干预措施针对的是那些有风险但不寻求干预的饮酒者， 治疗

Abstract Alcohol use, misuse and resulting negative consequences among college students have been extensively documented. Despite substantial efforts and recent advances in understanding and preventing excessive consumption and related harm, considerable gaps in the literature regarding etiology and maintenance of high-risk college drinking remain. Prior research has documented that negative alcohol-related events can promote changes to drinking behavior, motivations for change, and cognitions related to drinking. The proposed study will help to understand how self-change might occur among young adult college students as a result of experienced negative consequences. In this proposal, we use an event-level perspective to examine the interrelationships of expectancies, drinking, and consequences. Using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), 400 college students will report on their expectancies, drinking, and alcohol-related consequences three times daily for four two-week intervals over one year. By using daily reports over time, we can ensure temporal relationships between expectancies, drinking, and consequences; minimize recall bias; investigate reciprocal relationships of expectancies, drinking and consequences; and examine both within- and between-person influences on drinking and consequences. Using multilevel modeling, we will (1) examine the daily relationships between alcohol expectancies and alcohol use; (2) study bidirectional influences of expectancies, consequences, and drinking over time; (3) examine whether the immediate consequences of drinking change subsequent expectancies and drinking over time; and (4) examine the time-varying and time-invarying moderators of the within-person relationships between expectancies, drinking, and consequences. The factors related to self-change are important for understanding the maintenance and fluctuations of high-risk drinking and may ultimately help inform interventions targeted to drinkers who are at risk for consequences but are not seeking intervention or treatment.