Evolutionary models for a changing world

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With species facing an increasingly human-altered world and an evolving pandemic, the need for evolutionary analyses and modelling has never been clearer, with great demand for well trained HQP in this area. In this proposal, I outline the theoretical and experimental research that my group will accomplish if funded by NSERC, focusing on three major themes: Goal I: Evolutionary Theory to Understand Biodiversity in a Changing World Evolutionary theory allows us to probe how the biological system itself evolves. Fundamentally, how do the features evolve that define how an organism lives and reproduces? In turn, how do those features determine whether and how species adapt in a changing world? These questions underlie my long-term research interests and are the focus of several HQP projects. We are currently investigating multiple theory projects, which are already yielding novel insights. Among these are models exploring evolution in changing environments, adaptation with hybridization, and the long-term maintenance of variation with antagonistic selection. These are just a few examples of mathematical and computational projects that we will complete over this NSERC. Goal II: Evolution in a Rapidly Changing Environment Humans have altered the planet at a speed undocumented for a single species in a single century. My research group uses yeast to better understand the potential and limits of evolution in a rapidly changing environment. One major question is which combinations of environments are particularly challenging, and which easy, for evolutionary adaptation. Our lab will quantify the ability of yeast to adapt to metal pollutants, determine the genetic mechanisms of resistance, and assess cross-resistance to other metals. This work will provide information about which combinations of metals are particularly challenging for adaptation and will give insight into the genetic mechanisms of cross-resistance that might help remediate polluted sites. Goal III: An Evolving Pandemic My group has been involved in modelling COVID-19 since SARS-CoV-2 first arose, from the impact of various policy options to the selective pressures shaping the virus. We have and will continue to be at the service of society to conduct relevant and timely modelling. In addition to policy-relevant models, I have sought to clarify fundamental aspects of how selection acts on SARS-CoV-2. One controversial aspect is how much evolution is shaped by selective pressures within versus between individuals. My group will develop models that account for the spread of mutations as the virus replicates within and transmits among individuals to clarify the relative importance of selection at each level. We will also develop new theory to guide actions to where they would be most effective within a heterogeneous population. We are also developing new methods to search for recombinants of potential concern, to identify new variants earlier, and to estimate selection on these variants.