Theory of Rapid Extratropical Cyclogenesis

外气旋生成优先发生在某些 地理区域包括主要山脉的背风面， "风暴路径"大致与 西部边界流：北大西洋的墨西哥湾流， 北太平洋的黑潮。 然而，爆炸性的气旋生成， 其特征在于中心压力的大幅度降低， 强风，几乎完全是一种海洋现象。 天气 气象学家将某些气旋归类为"炸弹";"炸弹"是指 中心压力递减的外旋流器 -1 至少1 mb hr 观24小时£ ¬ 最近的观察性研究 已经确定了一些"炸弹"共有的关键要素。 然而，理论上的综合还没有出现。 在这个项目下，爆炸性气旋生成将被视为 一个初始值问题（IVP），从它的理论将得出。 这种处理不稳定性的方法与更传统和 正常模式的共同方法。 在IVP理论中，气旋生成 结果从增长的有利配置扰动在一个 斜压气流;无论气流是否 支持指数不稳定性，并给出增长率， 大于正常模式增长率的情况下， 存在. 作为该项目的一部分， 还将确定气旋发生并将其置于 新理论

Extratropical cyclogenesis occurs preferentially in certain geographical regions including the lee of major mountain ranges and the "storm tracks" roughly coincident with the eastward extension of western boundary currents: the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic and the Kuroshio in the North Pacific. However, explosive cyclogenesis, characterized by a large rate of decrease in central pressure and severe winds, is almost exclusively a marine phenomenon. Synoptic meteorologists classify certain cyclones as "bombs"; a "bomb" is an extratropical cyclone with its central pressure decreasing at a rate -1 of at least 1 mb hr for 24 hours. Recent observational studies have identified a number of crucial elements common to "bombs". However, a theoretical synthesis has yet to emerge. Under this project the explosive cyclogenesis will be treated as an initial value problem (IVP) from which a theory will be derived. This approach to instability contrasts with the more traditional and common approach of normal modes. In the IVP theory, cyclogenesis results from the growth of favorably configured perturbations in a baroclinic flow; intensification proceeds whether or not the flow supports exponential instabilities and gives growth rates which are greater than the normal mode growth rates in cases where normal modes exist. As part of the project, synoptic predictors for explosive cyclogenesis will also be identified and put in the context of the new theory.