Dynamic and Thermodynamic Forcing of Ice Thickness Variations

该项目将利用1977年至1992年在北极附近从潜艇上采集的冰厚测量数据来分析冰动力学或热力学的变化是否解释了已经发生的观测到的冰厚变化。研究人员将调整动力和热力学模型，以减少模型从海底数据中观测到的厚度变化产生的差异。对实际冰厚与预测冰厚的分析将有助于检验模式中的动力参数或热力学参数对观测到的冰厚变化的影响是否更大。这些结果对于理解冰厚变化背后的驱动力至关重要。如果最主要的机制是热力学，那么全球气候变化对冰厚产生影响的可能性可以用热力学模型来预测，该模型利用大气中温室气体增加所预测的北极温度变化。

ABSTRACT OPP-9729575 WALSH, JOHN UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS The project will utilize ice thickness measurements taken from submarines from 1977 - 1992 in the vicinity of the North Pole to analyze whether variations in ice dynamics or thermodynamics account for the observed changes in ice thickness that have occurred. The investigator will tune the dynamic and thermodynamic models to reduce the difference produced by the models from the observed thickness changes in the submarine data. The analysis of the actual vs. predicted ice thickness will allow examination of whether dynamic or thermodynamic parameters in the models have a greater influence on the changes from observed thickness. The results are critical to understanding the driving force behind changes in ice thickness. If the mechanism most responsible is thermodynamics, then the potential for global climate change to have an effect on ice thickness may be predicted with the thermodynamic models using temperature changes for the Arctic predicted from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.