The ENSO Signal in Botswanan Rainfall and Anticipated Impacts of the Current ENSO Event

摘要ATM-9805178 Nicholson，Sharon E. 佛罗里达州立大学题目：博茨瓦纳降雨中的ENSO信号和当前ENSO事件的预期影响 厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件通常与南部非洲大部分地区的干旱有关。 受影响最严重的地区之一是博茨瓦纳，在1991/92年厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件期间，那里的降雨量比正常水平低40%至80%。 初步工作表明，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与南部非洲降雨之间的关系比简单的干旱发生更为复杂。 虽然干旱通常发生在厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件期间，但在许多事件的早期，某些地区的降雨量实际上有所增加，并非所有的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件都与干旱有关。 该SGER奖支持更好地了解当前ENSO事件中降雨响应的顺序以及特定ENSO事件引起南部非洲降水信号的条件的研究。 自1970年代后期以来，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件的顺序发展似乎也发生了变化，当时世界海洋普遍变暖，目前的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动似乎采取了与其他强烈事件不同的路线。 正在进行的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件将被用来解决这些事件的性质和古气候信号诱发的字符。

Abstract ATM-9805178 Nicholson, Sharon E. Florida State University Title: The ENSO Signal in Botswanan Rainfall and Anticipated Impacts of the Current ENSO Event ENSO events are usually associated with drought in much of Southern Africa. One of the areas most strongly affected is Botswana where rainfall was 40 to 80% below normal during the 1991/92 ENSO episode. Preliminary work shows that the association between ENSO and rainfall in Southern Africa is more complex than the simple occurrence of drought. Although droughts commonly occur during ENSO episodes, early in many episodes there is actually an increase of rainfall in some regions and not all ENSO events are associated with droughts. This SGER award supports research to better understand the sequence of rainfall response within the current ENSO episode and the conditions under which a given ENSO event evokes a precipitation signal over Southern Africa. The sequential development of ENSO episodes also appears to have changed since the late 1970's, when a general warming occurred in the world's oceans and the current ENSO appears to be taking a somewhat different course than other intense events. The on-going ENSO event will be used to address the nature of these events and the character of the paleoclimate signal evoked.