Doctoral Dissertation: Cold War Legacy of Regulatory Risk Analysis

本论文项目考察了冷战的统治叙事，以了解特定的价值观和目的是如何主导风险分析的。它以一种新的视角展示了风险分析的监管历史，表明它不是像大多数账户声称的那样建立于20世纪70年代末，而是更早。民防规划、核反应堆安全和核沉降争议的案例研究表明，a)风险分析在冷战早期出现，以满足类似于后期风险分析特征的政策目标；b)方法和监管场所的变化标志着其在20世纪70年代末的重建。在60年代的社会动荡和监管改革之后，这种重建早期冷战权威和价值观模式的努力标志着系统学习和社会学习之间冲突的一个新的、尚未解决的阶段。该研究认为，目前威权主义和民主的监管风险方法之间的紧张关系，表明了一种关于替代现代化形式的潜在选择。

This dissertation project examines the governing narrative of the Cold War in order to understand how particular values and purposes came to dominate risk analysis. It casts risk analysis's regulatory history in a new light by showing that it was not established in the late 1970's, as most accounts claim, but much earlier. Case studies of civil defense planning, nuclear reactor safety, and the controversy over nuclear fallout show a) that risk analysis emerged early in the Cold War to meet policy objectives similar to those characteristics of later risk analysis, and b) that changes in methodology and regulatory sites marked its reestablishment in the late 1970's. This effort to reinstitute early Cold War patterns of authority and values in the wake of the social upheavals and regulatory reforms of the sixties marked a new and still unresolved phase in a conflict between system learning and social learning. The study argues that current tensions between authoritarian and democratic approaches to regulatory risk are indicative of an underlying choice about alternative forms of modernization.