Selection on Continuous Reaction Norms: Relating Environmental Change to Selection and Evolution

定量地了解环境变化如何导致选择和进化是进化生物学的一个基本挑战。 我们现在能够解决天气和气候变化如何决定选择和进化的各种基本问题。 在野外的选择主要是由于不经常暴露在极端（热或冷）温度下，还是平均温度条件的频率更重要？ 热环境中的地理变异如何在选择和进化上产生依赖于温度的生物特征的差异？我们能否定量地预测热环境的改变，例如气候变暖，将如何改变选择和进化反应？ 为了解决这些问题，拟议的研究将使用实验室和田间实验来测试描述选择和进化的定量数学模型的预测。 我们的研究使用的温度对生长速度的影响，在Pieris rafish（进口菜青虫）毛毛虫作为一个模型系统，这个物种经历了世界范围内的扩张，在过去的200年，它的地理范围，现在是一个重要的农业害虫在一些地区。

Understanding quantitatively how environmental changes cause selection and evolution is a fundamental challenge for evolutionary biology. We are now in a position to address a variety of fundamental questions about how changes in weather and climate determine selection and evolution. Is selection in the field primarily due to infrequent exposures to extreme (hot or cold) temperatures, or is the frequency of average temperature conditions more important? How does geographic variation in the thermal environment generate differences in selection and evolutionary divergence in traits of organisms that depend on temperature? Can we predict quantitatively how alterations in the thermal environment, such as those due to climate warming, will alter selection and evolutionary responses? To address these questions, the proposed studies will use laboratory and field experiments to test predictions of a quantitative, mathematical model describing selection and evolution. Our studies use temperature effects on growth rate in Pieris rapae (Imported Cabbageworm) caterpillars as a model system; this species has experienced a world-wide expansion of its geographic range during the past 200 years, and is now an important agricultural pest in some regions.