Studies in Empirical Climate Prediction and Understanding

这项研究有几个与大西洋热带气旋/飓风气候学和预测有关的目标：(1)改进大西洋盆地季节性飓风的大范围预测；(2)大西洋飓风活动的季节内(逐月)预测；(3)发展美国飓风登陆的概率预测；(4)12月初和4月初对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的预测。将进一步开发和应用经验/统计预测模型。广泛影响：PI的热带气旋预测供应急经理、保险机构、媒体和公众使用。他的组织的预测将公众的注意力转移到即将到来的飓风季节及其潜在危险上。此外，几个风险巨灾模型利用其季节性预测作为确定建议保险费的一个因素。更熟练的ENSO预报的发展将有助于在季节内到年际时间尺度上的社会规划。

This research has several goals related to Atlantic tropical cyclone/hurricane climatology and projections: (1) Improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) Intraseasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) Development of probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall; and (4) Early December and early April prediction of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Empirical/statistical prediction models will be further developed and applied.Broader Impacts:The PI's tropical cyclone forecasts are utilized by emergency managers, insurance agencies, the media and the general public. His group's forecasts turn the public attention towards the upcoming hurricane season and its potential dangers. In addition, several risk catastrophe models utilize its seasonal forecast as a factor in determining suggested insurance premiums. The development of a more skillful ENSO prediction will benefit societal planning on intraseasonal to interannual time scales.