The Dynamics of Civil War Outcomes: Bosnia and the North Caucasus

这项研究探讨了波斯尼亚和俄罗斯北高加索地区的内战结果。上世纪90年代，由于南斯拉夫和苏联的解体，这两个地区都经历了激烈的内战。虽然目前在北约部队保护下的波斯尼亚的战斗已经结束，相邻共和国的冲突也有所缓和，但在北高加索的车臣共和国，战斗仍在继续。pi探讨了四个相互关联的问题：1)冲突地区战争的经济、社会、政治、环境和健康后果的特点和局部分布是什么？2)哪些因素可以解释这些分布？3)如何在不同尺度的空间分析中应用基于民意调查、人口普查、政府和遥感数据收集的个人和总体数据综合方法？4)前冲突地区的战后发展是促进还是阻碍了种族间的和谐与民主价值，从而增强还是削弱了长期和平的前景？pi调查公共卫生影响、环境和基础设施影响、政治态度、难民流动和定居、种族清洗和分离、社会互动和战后经济调整。数据来自各种来源，包括过去15年来可获得的最小地理单位的人口普查、选举和其他政府数据；在受战争影响的地区进行意见和态度调查；以及粗糙和精细分辨率的遥感图像来绘制战前、冲突和冲突后的环境。pi是一个合作团队，代表五所美国大学和俄罗斯和波斯尼亚的当地研究伙伴。该项目为每个研究区域建立了一个地理信息系统，在多个尺度上集成了三种类型的数据。pi使用空间统计，包括探索性空间数据分析、地质统计学、数据挖掘、社会网络分析和多层次建模。该研究深化了对俄罗斯北高加索伊斯兰共和国和波斯尼亚未来可能发生冲突的潜在因素的实证分析。报告还评估了两个地区各民族之间和平关系的前景，并在地方、国家和国际机构试图应对过去15年来对人民、经济和环境造成的综合破坏之际，回答了有关前战区社区状况性质的关键问题。这项研究确定了结构性和个人损害的范围、强迫和自愿人口流动的单独和累积影响、战争动态在不同地区和社区之间的不同影响以及民族、宗教或族裔意识的深度。

HSD-04333927John O'LoughlinKristian GledistschJeremy MennisGerard ToalMichael WardThis research explores civil war outcomes in Bosnia and in the North Caucasus area of Russia. Both regions experienced violent civil war in the 1990s consequent to the break-up of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. While fighting has ended in Bosnia, now under the protection of NATO forces, and conflict ebbed in adjoining republics, it continues in the North Caucasian republic of Chechnya. The PIs explore four inter-related questionst: 1) What is the character and localized distribution of economic, social, political, environmental and health outcomes of the wars in the conflict zones? 2) What factors explain these distributions? 3) How can the application of an integrated methodology of individual and aggregate data that relies on opinion survey, census, governmental, and remote sensing data collection be operationalized in a spatial analysis across a variety of scales? 4) Are postwar developments in the former conflict regions promoting or retarding interethnic harmony and democratic values, thus enhancing or reducing the prospects for long-term peace? The PIs investigate the public health effects, environmental and infrastructural effects, political attitudes, refugee movement and settlement, ethnic cleansing and separation, social interactions, and economic adjustments after wars. Data come from a variety of sources including census, electoral and other governmental data over the past 15 years, at the smallest geographic units available; opinion and attitude surveys in the zones affected by war; and remote sensing imagery at both coarse and fine resolutions to map the pre-war, conflict and post-conflict contexts. The PIs are a collaborative team representing five US universities and local research partners in Russia and Bosnia. The project builds a GIS for each study region that integrates three types of data at multiple scales. The PIs use spatial statistics including exploratory spatial data analysis, geostatistics, data mining, social network analysis, and multilevel modeling. The research deepens the empirical analysis of underlying factors of possible future conflict in the Islamic republics of the North Caucasus of Russia and in Bosnia. It also gauges the prospects for peaceful relations between nationalities in the two regions and provides answers to key questions about the nature of community conditions in former war zones as local, national and international agencies try to cope with the aggregated disruptions to peoples, economies and environments over the past 15 years. The study ascertains the scope of structural and personal damages, the separate and cumulative effects of forced and voluntary population movement, the differential impacts across localities and communities of war dynamics and the depth of national, religious or ethnic-based consciousness.