Numeracy and Affect in Judgment and Decision Making

最近的算术研究表明，每个人处理数字的能力有很大的不同，事实上，许多人都是“不会算数的”。在我们日益技术化的世界里，不会算术(缺乏理解和使用基本概率和数学概念的能力)可能是在金融、医疗和其他领域做出好决定的一个关键劣势。我们考察了数字能力在多大程度上有助于在某些情况下做出决定，而在另一些情况下损害决定。我们还考察了计算能力是否会影响情感感受，并试图操纵情感，增强和破坏计算能力，以检验假设。这项研究将增加越来越多的关于情绪化和思考性思维方式如何影响决策的重要方面的知识，例如以不同方式(框架)描述决策特征的效果。此外，提高人们决策能力的建议主要基于基于总体人口的研究结果。然而，每个人需要的援助类型可能会有所不同。数值能力低的人可能需要与数值能力高的人不同的决策辅助工具。在一些涉及非常复杂的数字的决定中，我们可能都需要帮助。我们越来越多地被要求在重要的生活问题上做出自己的决定。健康和财务决策不再完全由家庭医生等专家决定。相反，与前几代人相比，所有决策者都面临着更多的选择和更多的信息。因此，基于研究的建议对于帮助那些偏好和处理信息能力不同的决策者以及面临不同数字复杂性决策的决策者至关重要。

Recent research in numeracy suggests that individuals differ substantially in their abilities to process numbers and that, in fact, many people are "innumerate." In our increasingly technical world, innumeracy (a lack of ability to understand and use basic probability and mathematical concepts) may be a critical disadvantage to making good decisions in financial, medical, and other domains.The proposed research examines the roles of numeracy and affect in decision making. We examine the extent to which numerical ability helps decisions in some situations and hurts decisions in others. We also examine whether numeracy impacts affective feelings, and we attempt to manipulate affect as well as to enhance and disrupt calculation ability in order to test hypotheses. This research will add to the growing body of knowledge concerning how affective and deliberative ways of thinking may influence important aspects of decision making such as the effects of describing features of a decision in different ways (framing). In addition, proposals for improving people's decision-making abilities are based primarily on research results based on the population as a whole. It may be, however, that individuals will differ in the type of assistance they need. Those low in numerical ability may need different decision aids than those high in numerical ability. In some decisions that involve very complex numbers, we may all need assistance. We are increasingly being asked to make our own decisions about vital life issues. No longer are health and financial decisions left entirely to specialists such as the family doctor. Instead, all decision makers are faced with more choices and more information than in previous generations. Thus, research-based advice is essential to help decision makers who differ in their preferences and abilities for processing information and who face decisions that differ in numerical complexity.