DRU: Tsunami Hazards: Social Cognitive Modeling of Preparedness and Effectiveness of Warnings

摘要最近，美国太平洋海啸预警系统扩展到大西洋和加勒比地区，凸显了美国大部分地区的海啸风险。我们的项目将创建一个跨学科模型，可作为传播风险信息的科学家和应急管理人员的决策工具。该模型将有助于制定干预计划，并评估外联项目的有效性，帮助美国处于危险中的社区做好应对海啸和应对海啸预警的准备。它将合并来自七个美国沿海社区的数据，这些社区(i)在20世纪的海啸中遭受过破坏或没有遭受过破坏，（ii）参加过或没有参加过广泛的海啸减灾运动。这项研究将提供对公众评估风险信息和面对变化作出决策的基本心理和组织过程的基本理解，并建立预测促进和阻碍采取海啸保护措施的因素的能力。从更广泛的角度来看，该项目既可以确定美国风险最大地区的当前准备水平，又可以帮助指导未来旨在加强社区抵御海啸影响能力的教育活动。这项研究将创造预测有助于和阻碍采取海啸保护措施的因素的能力。该模型能够预测影响备灾的因素，将是确保我们的社区准备好满足有效应对所需需求的重要工具。这项研究将通过科学出版物和国家海啸减灾委员会及其成员机构广泛传播。

AbstractDRU: TSUNAMI: Social cognitive modeling of preparedness and effectiveness of warningsRecent expansion of the U.S. Pacific tsunami warning system to the Atlantic and Caribbean underscores the tsunami risk in much of the U.S.A. Our project will create an interdisciplinary model that can be used as a decision-making tool by scientists and emergency managers who disseminate risk information. The model will assist intervention planning and assess the effectiveness of outreach programs in preparing at-risk communities in America to prepare for tsunami and to respond to tsunami warnings. It will merge data from seven US coastal communities that have (i) experienced damage in 20th century tsunamis or have not and (ii) have participated in extensive campaigns for tsunami mitigation or have not. The study will supply basic understanding of the fundamental mental and organizational processes underlying the public's evaluation of risk information and their decision making in the face of change, and create a capability to predict the factors that facilitate and hinder the adoption of protective measures for tsunamis. From a broader perspective, this program will both establish current levels of preparedness in the areas of the U.S. that are at greatest risk and help guide future education initiatives aimed at strengthening community resilience to tsunami effects. The research will create the capability to predict the factors that aid and hinder the adoption of protective measures for tsunamis. The model, that can predict the factors that influence preparedness, will be an essential tool to ensure that our communities are prepared to meet the demands required for effective response. The study will be widely disseminated through scientific publications and the National Tsunami Mitigation Committee and member agencies.