CNH-L: The Coupled Climate and Institutional Dynamics of Short-Lived Local Pollutants and Long-Lived Global Greenhouse Gases

在公共和科学讨论中，潜在的气候变化缓解通常被框定为一项任务，其成本是本地的、短期的和严重的，回报是全球的、长期的和不确定的。这一特征可能适用于二氧化碳、一氧化二氮和甲烷等长期温室气体(LLGHGs)，但不适用于颗粒物、黑碳、二氧化硫和对流层臭氧等被认为是短期本地污染物(SLLP)的化合物。这些短暂的污染物在一系列空间和时间尺度上通过不同的机制影响大气条件和空气质量。LLGHGs和SLLP通常由相同的过程共同排放，尽管在数量和组合上存在很大差异，但迄今为止，科学家和政策制定者在很大程度上将这些不同类型的排放视为可交换和可分离的。这种办法是不完整的，因为个别排放物种很少能够孤立地减轻，不同减排组合的全球和区域净影响应考虑LLGHG和SLLP影响的总和。要充分了解环境影响以及缓解成本和效益，需要将可持续土地利用规划和低温室气体一并考虑，因此这是本项目的重点。此外，该项目将通过培训几名本科生和研究生从事具有社会重要性的跨学科研究，促进科学队伍的发展。该项目将利用耦合系统方法，了解低温室气体和可持续土地利用规划在自然(大气)和人类(决策)系统动态以及连接它们的过程中的联合作用。该项目的目标是：1)描述可持续土地利用和低温室气体跨空间、跨时间和跨部门的联合排放特征；2)建立可供科学家和政策制定者使用的综合分析的分析基础设施；3)了解造成相同排放引起的大气浓度和辐射强迫区域差异的机制；4)建立一个动态框架，解释全球对各个可持续土地利用热点的响应的空间模式和大小；5)收集和合并关于环境状况的最新数据与农业和健康结果的数据；6)利用空间计量经济学推导特定地点的大气条件对人类健康和作物产量的暴露-反应关系；7)完全耦合人类和自然动态系统，以迭代地了解基于国家缓解承诺的现实实施、其大气影响以及当地特有的健康和作物产量影响，当地和全球的成本和收益如何推动国家最优缓解水平和总体全球缓解。

Potential climate change mitigation is typically framed in both public and scientific discussions as an undertaking whose costs are local, near-term and acute, and whose returns are global, far-term and uncertain. This characterization may be true for long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, but it is not true of compounds that are considered short-lived local pollutants (SLLPs) such as particulate matter, black carbon, sulfur dioxide and tropospheric ozone. These short-lived pollutants impact atmospheric conditions and air quality through different mechanisms over a range of spatial and temporal scales. LLGHGs and SLLPs are often co-emitted by the same processes, albeit in widely differing quantities and combinations, but to date, scientists and policymakers have largely treated these different types of emissions as both interchangeable and separable. This approach is incomplete because individual emissions species rarely can be mitigated in isolation and the net global and regional impacts of different mitigation portfolios should consider the sum of both LLGHG and SLLP effects. A full understanding of environmental impacts, and of mitigation costs and benefits, requires that SLLPs and LLGHGs be considered together, and thus is the focus of this project. Additionally, this project will contribute to the development of the scientific workforce by training several undergraduate and graduate students to work on interdisciplinary research of societal importance.This project will utilize a coupled systems approach to understanding the joint roles of LLGHGs and SLLPs in the dynamics of natural (atmospheric) and human (policymaking) systems, as well as in the processes that connect them. The objectives of this project are to 1) characterize the joint emissions of SLLPs and LLGHGs across, space, time and sector, 2) build analytical infrastructure that enables integrated analysis that is useable to both scientists and policy makers, 3) understand the mechanisms driving regional differences in the atmospheric concentrations and radiative forcing induced by identical emissions, 4) build a dynamical framework explaining the spatial pattern and magnitude of global response to individual SLLP hotspots, 5) assemble and merge novel state-of-the-art data on environmental conditions with data on agricultural and health outcomes, 6) use spatial econometrics to derive location-specific exposure-response relationships for atmospheric conditions on human health and crop yields, 7) fully couple the human and natural dynamics systems to iteratively understand how local and global costs and benefits, based on realistic implementations of national mitigations commitments, their atmospheric effects, and their locally-specific health and crop yield impacts, drive national optimal mitigation levels and overall global mitigation.